Texas Soaker To Get Underway Tomorrow...

Moisture from former Hurricane Miriam (yellow arrows) will combine with lift from an upper level storm system (red circled area) to produce a widespread rain event across the Lone Star State on Friday and Saturday.

The heaviest rains will fall on Friday Night and Saturday, with a swath of widespread 3-6 inch rainfall forecast from the Big Bend, Eastward across the Edwards Plateau, including the Austin-San Antonio corridor along I-35:

Present indications suggest that the heaviest rainfall will take place along the I-35 corridor (including the Austin-San Antonio areas) from 10am through 6pm on Saturday.  This could lead to low land and small stream flooding problems, particularly in urban and other poor drainage areas.  A "cold" front will sweep across the region late Saturday, bringing the heavier precipitation to an end from Northwest to Southeast across the region.

This is good news in general, as much of the heavier rains will fall across an area that continues to experience moderate to severe drought, as indiciated by the latest data that was released today:

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A Look at Rainfall Totals in Texas

Above is a summary of precipitation that occurred across Texas, mainly during the period Friday through Sunday.

As you can see, widespread amounts of 2-5 inches were received along the I-35 corridor from San Antonio through the Austin area (darker yellow, orange and red shaded areas on the image).

The darker green shadings represent 1-2 inch rains, which took place across a significant portion of the state, as well as portions of western and northern Oklahoma.

Heavy rains fell yesterday across Arkansas and Louisiana (as represented on the right hand side of the image).

As the rain fell across Texas over a 3 day period, there were no instances of significant flooding.  Unfortunately, this won't be the case as the system moves to the Eastern U.S. through Wednesday.

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Trend Toward Wetter, Cooler Weather A Sign of Things to Come for the South This Fall...

Another cold front is making its way to the south across the northern U.S. this morning, and will bring widespread rain and cooler conditions to much of the central and southern Plains through Saturday.

The image above shows the HPC forecast total precipitation for today through Sunday.  Most of the precipitation will fall during the period Thursday through Saturday, and you can see that 1-2 inch amounts are forecast across a widespread area from Texas into  parts of Oklahoma and Louisiana.  Much needed rain that will be spread out over a 24-36 hour period in most areas.



Temperatures behind the front will be pleasantly cool for this time of year, with readings forecast to average as many as 25-30 degrees below normal across portions of southwest Kansas, western Oklahoma and the Texas / Oklahoma panhandle region on Friday:

The core of below normal temperatures will shift Southward by Saturday, with readings forecast to average as much as 15-20 degrees below normal across portions of Texas by that time:

Another, perhaps even more significant, cooldown appears to be in the offing for next week.  The latest forecast from the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) is calling for a core of below normal temperatures, this time centered over the Midwest and Great Lakes, southward into the Mississippi Valley region for the period September 19th-25th:

I believe that residents of the southern tier of the U.S. should get used to relatively frequent periods of wet, cool weather as we head deeper into the fall and winter months.  This is because conditions indicate that an El Nino pattern is developing in the Pacific Ocean, and such a pattern typically leads to wetter than normal conditions across the southern tier of states during the fall and winter:

This will be good news for many severely dry areas across the South, and should drastically improve (if not eliminate in some areas) drought conditions as we head into the spring planting and growing seasons.

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Remnants of Isaac Bring Beneficial Rains to Midwest...

As we had hoped, the remnants of Hurricane and Tropical Storm Isaac have produced widespread, beneficial rains across much of the Midwest and middle Mississippi Valley over the last 24-36 hours.  The above image shows the Southern view of observed rainfall for yesterday and last night, and the image below shows the Northern view of the same:

A zoom-in on the Missouri area shows a band of widespread 3-6 inch rains from Kansas City to near Kirksville, MO, and a similar band arcing Southeastward into west-central and central Illinois:

Similar 3 inch (plus) rains fell over portions of eastern Arkansas as well, with the locations in lavender receiving in excess of 6 inches:

Additional heavy rains are instore today, with a 3-4 inch (plus) bullseye centered over central portions of Illinois and Indiana:

All of the above rainfall, and that which is still to come, is taking place across a region that has been severely impacted by drought in recent months:

...so this is a very welcome site indeed!

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