Tornado Strikes Koshigaya, Saitama Region - Near Tokyo...

A strong tornado struck the Koshigaya region in Saitama Prefecture, to the North of Tokyo, Japan earlier today (local time).  The above screen grab was taken from the following video that was recently posted to YouTube:

Here is another YouTube video of the tornado from a different perspective (videography is not as good as the one above, but still revealing at times):

Damage is reported as widespread in the region, with regional media indicating 400+ buildings damaged and over 60 people injured.



The following photos of some of the damage were posted to twitter by Robert Speta, a U.S. meteorologist who is working in the area:

The Asahi Shimbun news agency posted the following damage photos:

Local radar (via Robert Speta on twitter) showed an apparent hook echo as the storm moved Northeast across the area:

Reportedly, over 30,000 households continue to be without power at this time.

Tornadoes are not unheard of in this area, but are unusual, especially compared to activity in the U.S.  The most deadly tornado in recent years took place on November 7, 2006 when 9 people were killed as a tornado struck the Saroma, Hokkaido region.

On May 6 of last year, a tornado struck the Tsukuba, Ibaraki region, killing a 14 year old boy and damaging over 800 homes.  An article on that tornado was posted on this blog at the time and can be found here.

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Recent Study Suggests Storm Chasers Positively Contribute to Tornado Awareness...

Following the deadly events in Moore and El Reno, OK in May, there was much discussion of "banning" or otherwise placing significant restrictions on storm chasers.



It's easy to jump to conclusions and make hasty declarations following such a devastating and traumatic event.  I think in the ensuing days, calmer heads have prevailed, and there is even some recent statistical evidence that suggests storm chasers have positively contributed to tornado awareness, which we know has a direct impact on tornado safety.



Research performed by Laura E. Michaels, Kelsey N. Scheitlin, and Ian J. Elsner (to be published in the Weather, Climate and Society Journal later this year) shows that it is just as common for a tornado to be reported well away from population centers today as it is near the city itself.  



In the past, reports of tornadoes were far more common near population centers than in rural areas, as illustrated by the chart below (I've inserted metric to English conversions at the bottom):

As you can see, during the most recent period of 2002-2011, you're almost as likely to hear of a tornado report "in the country" as you are "in the city".  James Elsner, one of the researchers involved in the study, states on his blog "we show evidence that this (result) could be related in part to an increase in the number of storm chasers..."

Meteorologists have long known of the contribution that responsible storm chasers make to severe weather awareness and safety, but as far as I know there hasn't been a formal study made that puts some "numbers" behind the suggestion. Perhaps this will be the one.  I look forward to reading the full publication and will post a review here on the blog when it becomes available.

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Tornado Safety: Why It's Unwise to Wait Before Seeking Shelter...

A tornado struck the Myrtle Beach, SC area during the late afternoon hours of Saturday, June 29, 2013.  The above video was taken by resident Melissa Porshia and posted to You Tube.

If you look closely (and she points it out), you can see debris in the air around the circulation, but there is no visible funnel cloud present during this particular video segment.

A photo taken by Kathleen Winans shows the tornado from another vantage point, likely just after the above video had ended:

As you can see, by that time a "traditional" condensation funnel had become apparent, though it does not appear to extend all the way to the ground.

Fortunately this tornado was weak, with only EF-0 damage found - but don't let that mislead you.  I've seen cases where much stronger tornadoes caused damage with little or no visible funnel extending all the way to the ground at the time.

The point of this post is to illustrate that a condensation funnel does not need to be present in order for there to be a danger from a tornado.  The circulation is what counts - and there may not always be visible evidence of a funnel cloud.

Further proof that when a Tornado Warning is issued, you should seek shelter immediately!

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Surviving a Tornado Above Ground vs. Driving Away From It: More El Reno Tornado Controversy from 5-31-13...

Before the news of "storm chaser" deaths associated with the tornadoes near El Reno, OK on May 31, 2013, the big buzz within some parts of the media and across the entire severe weather safety community had to do with scenes like the one above - a heavily congested I-35 heading South out of Oklahoma City, away from the incoming storms.



So, what exactly are we looking at here?  Is this simply rush hour traffic on a Friday afternoon?  Is this a scene showing people attempting to flee the tornado warned area and get out of the danger zone?  Could it be some of both?  



Assuming that even part of the congestion was caused by folks attempting to flee the danger zone, why would they do that instead of "sheltering in place" as they have been advised to do for many years?  Was it because of the devastation that they had witnessed in Moore just over one week earlier, or were they following someone else's advice in a moment of fear and/or panic?  Again, could it be some of both?



If they were following another person's advice, chances are that it was that of meteorologist Mike Morgan at KFOR-TV.  Mike was part of KFOR's live coverage that was broadcast not only on their air, but also on radio stations and internet streams that afternoon and evening.  KFOR is also an NBC affiliate, so The Weather Channel (which is owned by NBC Universal) also carried significant portions of KFOR's coverage live, including segments like this one below.



Pay particular attention to Mike's words from about 0:50 to 1:25 into the video:

My main takeaway was that his advice to residents was:

• You can't survive this tornado if you're not underground

• Get away (in your vehicle) from the tornado if you don't have adequate shelter

This particular segment addressed the threat to residents of Yukon, but a very similar (if not identical) message was relayed as tornadoes threatened El Reno, south Oklahoma City and other areas as well.

So, was this good advice or was it not?  In my opinion, the answer is mostly "no", but to be completely fair, let's take a closer look at each point:

• "You can't survive this tornado if you're not underground..."  Obviously, that's not a true statement, as nothing is impossible when it comes to tornado survival.  In the least, this was a poor choice of words, but they were the same words that he would repeat numerous times that day.

With that said, it is absolutely true that if you want to ensure your survival in a strong or violent tornado situation, your best bet is always to shelter below ground.  This is not a news bulletin to anyone living in Oklahoma or other areas that are frequented by strong and violent tornadoes.  It's a fact of life (literally).

Another important point to remember when considering the underground vs. above ground sheltering option is that it's not necessarily a "direct hit" by a tornado that causes deaths.  More often than not, tornado deaths are the result of debris hitting the victim in the head, chest or torso, and that can happen well away from the actual "center" of the tornado's path.  This is the main reason, in my opinion, that getting below ground is always the best, safest option, if such an option is available...

...and many folks in this region do have such an option, either via a basement or storm cellar that has been in place for years, or via a storm shelter  that has been installed following violent tornado events of recent years).

Many folks in this area also have a friend or relative that has such an option if they don't have one of their own - but you have to assess the threat well ahead of time (i.e., when the Tornado Watch is issued - don't wait for the Warning) and be able to safely get to that location well before the actual threat exists.

• "Get away from the tornado if you don't have adequate shelter..." Very good advice, but not when you have only minutes to react.  This is particularly the case when you live in a heavily populated metropolitan area where roads can become congested quickly on their own, much less in an emergency evacuation type situation.

For years now, I've been advising residents of mobile homes and other vulnerable locations without a nearby sheltering option to leave their home and go to a friend or relative's house or other more suitable structure as soon as a Tornado Watch is issued for their area.  You absolutely do not want to try and flee by vehicle once you're in a warning situation, particularly in a heavily populated area where there is a potential for you to get stuck on a log jammed roadway.

Should you do this every time a Tornado Watch is issued?  That's a matter of personal opinion and is unique to your specific situation.  If you are "scared to death" in almost any tornado situation, then you probably should.  If you're only concerned about "the big one", you'll likely be given clues by trusted meteorologists and other sources before the event actually begins to unfold.  On my blog, I always use words like "pay particular attention to the weather in this area", or "one or more strong and/or long track tornadoes are possible today" when trying to get the word out about a particularly volatile situation.

After making repeated statements like the ones in the video above, many were understandably quick to jump on Mike Morgan's case over the weekend, particularly when it was revealed that several of the deaths in the OKC Metro area on Friday took place on roadways.  While I believe that his intentions were probably good, I feel that he delivered the advice either (1). using a poor choice and/or combination of words and/or (2). when it was too late for people to safely do something about their situation, potentially causing more of a "panic" mode.

In my opinion, the 12 Noon newscast that day (if not before) would have been the time to suggest that folks line up a more suitable sheltering option if they weren't comfortable with the one they would have later in the afternoon and evening.  That would have given folks some time to contact a friend or relative, make a plan and not have to rush out in a moment of panic into a potentially dangerous situation.

The fact of the matter is that we'll probably never know why all of the people that did choose to flee made that decision on Friday.  Not everyone in OKC watches KFOR-TV or The Weather Channel.  I feel that many probably reacted that way when they heard that another potentially devastating tornado was headed their way again, especially after what they had witnessed in Moore the week before.  Add some traditional and/or social media "hysteria" to the mix, and you have all of the necessary ingredients for a full blown panic situation for some.

Without a doubt, the combination of rush hour traffic, people fleeing based on bad advice and people fleeing based on their own fear of the situation turned out to be a major problem for almost all involved, and it may have even resulted in death for a select number (although that is difficult to quantify based on the information that we have to date).  A tragic situation anyway you look at it, and one that could have been avoided last Friday and should be avoided in the future.

"No Other Options"

So, what do you do if you don't have an underground shelter and a strong or violent tornado will potentially affect your location in minutes?

Do the same thing you've been told to do since Kindergarten:  get in a small interior room or hallway on the lowest floor of your location and cover your head and upper body as much as possible.

Bathrooms and closets offer great protection, but be sure to put as many walls between you and the exterior of your location as possible (don't go to one on the outside wall).  The bathroom is probably the best option in this case, as the pipes in the walls may offer additional support and protection.

If you have a bicycle, motorcycle, football or other type of "crash helmet", put it on, especially on the kids.  Head injuries are among the leading causes of tornado fatalities, particularly in children.  

"Caught In the Car"

If you are caught in your vehicle and a tornado is approaching (whether you're stuck in rush hour traffic, blocked by a flooded road or took some bad advice and tried to run away from the tornado when it was too late), by all means get out of the vehicle!

I was shocked and appalled to see the American Red Cross of all people recommend last year that it was "safe" to stay seat belted in your car if a tornado was approaching.  I could not disagree more, and the statistics from Joplin, Moore, and most recently in El Reno prove that without a doubt, a vehicle is no safe place to be during a strong or violent tornado.

If you are caught in your vehicle and have no way to safely get out of the situation, leave your car immediately and lay low in a ditch, ravine or other low spot.  Again, cover your head and upper body as much as possible, and if you have a helmet available, put it on!

As I always try to point out, you can survive a tornado regardless of your circumstances.  The main thing is to plan ahead, that way you are less likely to panic and make a bad decision when the critical time does come.

Our thoughts and prayers continue to be with the folks that have been devastated by tornadoes over the last month, and we hope that the worst of this season is behind us - but please take some time to prepare and have a safety action plan in place now, just in case another threat does develop in your area.

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America Isn't the Only Place with Tornado Troubles this Week...

The above tornado, apparently strong, was captured on video in the Tula Region of Russia earlier today (U.S. time).  As of this writing I do not have information on casualties.

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Large Tornado in Emilia Romagna Italy Today...

A large tornado struck the Emilia Romagna region of Italy earlier today (local time).  The above video was recently posted on YouTube and the still photo below was posted on twitter:

One of the same supercell thunderstorms also produced very large hail across the area (which is not typical of this region):

The radar snapshot below shows the same types of supercell thunderstorm signatures across northern Italy today that we'd typically see here in the central U.S.!

...and a related visible satellite picture shows "overshooting tops" on at least 3 storms, which signifies very large hail (as confirmed by the picture above):

You can read more about the event here.

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Damaging Tornado Strikes Yarrawonga, Mulwala Australia Areas...

A large, damaging tornado struck the communities of Yarrawonga and Mulwala in New South Wales, Australia this morning (U.S. time).  This is about 135-140 miles North/Northeast of Melbourne.



The above photo is a screen grab taken from this video posted to facebook.


Another video of the tornado was recently posted to YouTube (note the power flashes, especially toward the end of the short clip):

Stephen Hicks of Yarrawonga took this photo of the tornado as posted to facebook:

Authorities say at least 90 people have been injured, though fortunately most appeared to be "walking wounded".  

Damage reports so far include the roof of a post office being removed, as well as widespread tree, powerline and vehicle damage.  Large hail also reportedly accompanied the storms that hit the region during the late afternoon and early evening hours (Australian time).

For more information from 'The Original Weather Blog', including shorter, more frequent posts during rapidly changing weather events, please be sure to follow me on facebook and twitter:

 

Coming March 2013:  "The Tornado Chronicles" full website!

• Interactive tornado database back to 1950 (earlier years coming soon)

• Interactive radar with live warnings and street-level zoom

• Tornado safety, preparedness and education

• Daily tornado/severe weather outlook

• Photos, videos and more!

Please show your support and follow The Tornado Chronicles on twitter and on facebook for the latest updates on tornadoes and the upcoming website!

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Tornado Safety, Kindergartner's Style...

With the primary severe weather and tornado season fast approaching, who better to give us some advice than a kindergartner:

You can read a "grown up's" version in my Severe Weather Safety and Preparedeness Guide.

For more information from 'The Original Weather Blog', including shorter, more frequent posts during rapidly changing weather events, please be sure to follow me on facebook and twitter:

 

Coming March 2013:  "The Tornado Chronicles" full website!

• Interactive tornado database back to 1950 (earlier years coming soon)

• Interactive radar with live warnings and street-level zoom

• Tornado safety, preparedness and education

• Daily tornado/severe weather outlook

• Photos, videos and more!

Please show your support and follow The Tornado Chronicles on twitter and on facebook for the latest updates on tornadoes and the upcoming website!

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Midwest City, OK (OKC Metro) Votes to Close Public Tornado Shelters...

Residents of Midwest City, a suburb of Oklahoma City, who have come to rely upon the city's three public tornado shelters over the years will have to find a new place to take cover this severe weather season.

The city council voted to close the shelters, primarily citing a concern that if they were to reach capacity, some folks might have to be turned away during the middle of a severe weather situation.

I wasn't satisfied that the quote from Assistant City Manager Tim Rundel indicated that people had, in fact, been turned away in the past.  A quick check of the internet couldn't find any specific evidence of that either, so I guess the city views this as a preemptive move.

I'm sure the media in the OKC area is all over this story and that the city will make sure that all citizens are informed of the closures.  At the same time, I can't help but wonder what type of situation a citizen could potentially be placed in if they take off for the public shelter during a tornado warning this spring only to find the doors locked?

Reed Center - 1 of Midwest City's (now former)

public tornado sheltering locations

Other than contacting your councilman, congressman or senator, what are you to do?  There are two main choices, I suppose:  (1). build your own shelter or (2). make friends with someone who has extra space in theirs!

The article (at the link above) stated that FEMA grants have assisted 800 residents of the city in obtaining personal storm shelters, and some 1300 other residents have registered a tornado shelter with the city in recent years.  While I agree that a personal storm shelter is clearly the way to go, the grants were apparently distributed on a first come, first served basis and have already been exhausted.  Therefore, they will be of little help to those who are faced with the news that their public shelter resource is now unavailable.

As I've pointed out here on the blog over the years, statistically speaking you have a very good chance of surviving the "average" tornado in a frame built home or similar structure, by seeking shelter in the smallest interior room on the lowest floor (like a bathroom or closet).

Small 1st floor closet is all that remains

standing after a tornado hit this home.

If, however, you live in a mobile home, you must leave it without question in a tornado situation.

While public shelters have always been a nice option in the mobile home situation, I've always suggested that if you live in a mobile home and you know that there is a threat of tornadoes (via forecasts and/or a Tornado Watch is issued for your location) that you should try and contact a friend or relative that has a more substantial shelter.  I would make some sort of arrangement to stay with them until the threat has ended.  Other than going outside and getting in the ditch if a tornado threatens, that is probably your best option.

Mobile homes are no match for a tornado

I would never use a vehicle as a form of shelter either (I know some sources are making that recommendation now, but I am not convinced that it is safe).  If you find yourself caught outdoors in a tornado with no substantial shelter nearby, the best thing to do is lay as flat as possible in a ditch or other low spot until the tornado passes.

As we head toward the spring severe weather season, we'll have additional updated information on the latest safety and sheltering tips for this year here on the blog, as well as on our new site, The Tornado Chronicles, which launches on March 1 (see below for details and to follow the new site).

For more information from 'The Original Weather Blog', including shorter, more frequent posts during rapidly changing weather events, please be sure to follow me on facebook and twitter:

 

Coming March 2013:  The Tornado Chronicles full website!

Including information on every U.S. tornado since 1950, tornado safety, preparedness and education as well as interactive radar, tornado outlooks, watches and warnings, and much more!  Please show your support and follow The Tornado Chronicles on twitter and on facebook for the latest updates on tornadoes and the upcoming website!

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Update on "The Tornado Chronicles" Website...

I apologize for the relatively sparse postings over the past few days, but I've been taking advantage of the relatively quiet weather conditions to work on The Tornado Chronicles website.



In case you've missed the blurbs here and there within recent Tornado Chronicles postings here on the blog, we'll be "spinning out" (pun intended) the popular blog series to its own website effective March 1!



In addition to regular "Tornado Chronicles" postings on recent tornado events, the website will also feature a searchable tornado database back to 1950 (we're working on 1900-1950 for a later update), as well as safety and preparedness information, an interactive radar page and the latest outlook, watch and warning information.



Here is a "sneak preview" of the top of the homepage.  Keep in mind this may change a bit before launch, but it should give you an idea as to what we're working on:

Go ahead and bookmark the site if you'd like, and check back for the launch on March 1st (you never know, you may also catch us testing the site out live from time to time).

We have also created twitter and facebook pages that will include updates on actual tornado events throughout the year, as well as updates on the progress of the site over the coming weeks...

Please show your support and follow "The Tornado Chronicles":

      

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2012 Tornadoes in Review

The preliminary quality control work is now complete and the "final" 2012 tornado statistics are in.  While its wasn't the "record low" year that some were predicting in the fall, it was a below normal year indeed.  A total of 936 tornadoes took place throughout the year, which is about 80% of the "normal" of 1148.  The last time we had fewer tornadoes in a year was back in 2002, when 934 were reported.

The first tornado of 2012 took place at 8:45 a.m. CST on January 9th (EF-0 intensity near Mission Bend, Texas) and the last took place at 5pm EST on the day after Christmas (EF-1 intensity near Beaufort, North Carolina).



In total, the tornadoes were spread out over 170 days with the top 5 events being:



1.  April 14-15th:  98 tornadoes (view the Tornado Chronicles post)

2.  March 2-3rd:  75 tornadoes (view the Tornado Chronicles post)

3.  February 29:  44 tornadoes

4.  December 25th:  28 tornadoes (preliminary)

5.  January 22-23:  25 tornadoes



I've never seen a Christmas Day show up on the top 5 tornado event list for any year, which should give you an idea as to how unusual the trends were overall.  As the 2012 actual vs. normal chart shows below, the first quarter of the year started out abnormally active, which continued into April.  From May and beyond, the trend then reversed with below normal activity throughout the remainder of the year, with the exception of December (thanks in large part to the Christmas Day event):

There were 68 people killed by tornadoes in 2012 and while 68 deaths are 68 deaths too many, the fatality rate was below the 91 that we see in an average year.  The deadliest single tornado of 2012 was the Henryville, Indiana event of March 2nd, where 11 people were killed.

Henryville, IN Tornado - via Evan Bentley

While it is impossible to be sure what 2013 will bring as a whole, preliminary signs point toward an active start to the spring severe weather season.  I would encourage everyone to review severe weather safety, preparedness and sheltering tips ahead of time so that you're sure to be ready when the "regular" severe weather gets underway.  Watch for an update to the severe weather preparedness post next month.  While there won't be any significant changes made to the safety and sheltering tips, I will be making some new recommendations with regard to being prepared and receiving severe weather warnings and updates.



Also, stay tuned for an exciting new program coming this spring.  The popular "Tornado Chronicles" series here on the blog will be spinning-off (no pun intended), to its own website, including a searchable tornado database!  Barring any unforeseen circumstances, the site should be live on March 1.

For more information from 'The Original Weather Blog', including shorter, more frequent posts during rapidly changing weather events, please be sure to follow me on facebook and twitter:

 

If you are in need of highly customized, site specific weather forecasts and/or storm warnings for your business, school or event, be sure visit my professional webpage at WeatherGuidance.com.

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