Tropical System Forming Near Cuba Bears Watching...

The tropical system forming just Southwest of the Western tip of Cuba (as shown in the visible satellite image above) is becoming much better organized as of early afternoon today.

I fully expect this system to be named a Depression or Tropical Storm later today.



This system could eventually impact portions of the U.S. Gulf Coast, most likely from Mississippi on Eastward:

There are many variables still at play here, but at this time it appears the most likely U.S. impacts would take place during the 2nd half of this weekend into the first part of next week.

If you live along the U.S. Gulf Coast in the indicated areas, please keep an eye on this system over the coming days.  We'll post pertinent information as it becomes better organized...

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"Hurricane Drought" Continues In the Atlantic/Gulf of Mexico...

...and the only people complaining about it are a select few of the "usual suspects" in the mainstream media.



The system that I blogged about at the beginning of the week (or last weekend?) in the Gulf of Mexico is in the process of being absorbed by a cool front at this time, so it no longer poses a threat of organizing into a tropical system:

Moisture from this system as well as the remnants of a tropical system in the Pacific did produce widespread, beneficial rainfall across much of southcentral and eastern Texas on Thursday and Friday, with 3-6 inches deposited in a good chunk of the Edwards Aquifer recharge zone (which lies immediately to the West of the Austin/San Antonio corridor).



The image below is the storm total rainfall estimate from the dual-pol radar at the New Braunfels airport (between Austin and San Antonio, scale in inches at the left hand side):

So, what are the prospects for organized tropical weather in the upcoming week to 10 days?  Pretty low the way it looks right now, but we'll keep an eye on it...

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Keeping an Eye on 1st Hurricane Potential of Season for U.S. Gulf Coast...

An area of disturbed weather is taking shape in the tropics near the Yucatan Peninsula today (red circled area on the visible satellite image above).  A Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to visit the region this afternoon, and this system is very likely to be named a Tropical Depression or Storm in the next 24-48 hours.

Computer model forecast solutions are all over the place with this system so far, but the general consensus in the last 12-18 hours is focusing on eventual, direct impacts on the northcentral or northeast Gulf Coast (and I agree with that assessment at this time):

The HWRF computer model is the most "bullish" so far, forecasting a hit by a formidable hurricane along the Florida coast late this weekend or early next week:

I would caution that "upgrades" in the HWRF model earlier this year seem to have resulted in its drastically "over forecasting" the intensity of just about every tropical system so far this season.  With that said, folks along the Gulf Coast need to keep a close eye on the development of this system, as some degree of impact from what will likely be a hurricane can be expected later this weekend or early next week.  The good news is that we still have some time to watch the system and gauge its true intensity before it directly impacts the U.S. coast.

In the meantime, moisture from this system will spread West into an already water logged eastern Mexico, as well as much of southern Texas and eventually the upper Texas and Louisiana coasts over the next 2-3 days.  The accumulated rainfall forecast from the WPC for the period today through 7pm CDT Saturday is shown below:

Again, if you live across the Gulf Coast from Texas through Florida, and especially the northcentral and northeastern parts of the Gulf Coast, please keep a very close eye on this system over the coming days. As always, you can track the progression of this and any other system with potential U.S. impacts on WeatherGuidance's Tropical Weather Homepage.

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Tropics Looking to "Heat Up" - Right on Schedule...

After a relatively quiet start to the season (in the Atlantic), the tropics are starting to show signs of "waking up" as we head toward the traditionally busy month of September...



A disturbance over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico has become well organized during the past 24 hours, and is likely to become a Tropical Depression or perhaps even a weak Tropical Storm before making landfall in Mexico tonight into early Monday.  I've circled the area in red on the latest visible satellite image:

Fortunately, with the system so close to land, there is little opportunity for significant strengthening, and this will mainly be a heavy rain and potential flooding/mudslide event for the impacted areas.

Meanwhile, a string of tropical waves are about to emerge from Africa into the Atlantic basin, the first two circled in red and yellow on the satellite image below: 

There is still quite a bit of African dust that could inhibit vigorous development early in the week, as shown by this computer model dust plume forecast from NASA valid 7pm CDT Monday:

...but the mass is forecast to thin out somewhat by 7pm CST on Wednesday:

So, as the week progresses, it appears as though conditions will gradually become more favorable for one or more of these disturbances to hold together and become better organized as they move Westward.

Conditions are likely to become even more favorable for development in the Atlantic as we head into at least the early part of September, so please don't let your guard down just because we've had a "slow start" this season.  There's still plenty of hurricane season yet to come, and as I always say, it only takes 1 system to hit the wrong place at the wrong time for us to have a very bad result.

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Saharan Dust Keeping a Lid on the Tropical Atlantic So far...

Above is an animation from the NASA GEOS-5 model, showing the spread of dust from the Saharan Desert of Africa, Westward across the tropical Atlantic (model data via Dr. Ryan Maue of WeatherBell).

The plume of dust is associated with a hot, dry layer of air that continues to spread West into the tropics, eroding the deep moist layer that is needed for significant tropical development.  It will be interesting to monitor this resource for signs of a breakdown in the "dust train", which could signal an uptick in tropical development shortly thereafter.

I'd also like to take this opportunity to remind everyone not to be lured into a false sense of security due to the seemingly "slow start" to the tropical weather season.  As I always point out, whether we have 15 hurricanes or 1 hurricane in a given season, it only takes 1 hitting the wrong place at the wrong time to have a potentially disastrous result.

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Tropical Trouble for Texas / Mexico Next Week?

This is not a forecast, just something that will be interesting to watch from a computer model forecast performance perspective...



The last few runs of both the European and the U.S. based GFS computer models are forecasting a tropical system to develop in the Southwest part of the Gulf of Mexico late next week, with a possible impact somewhere along the Mexico and/or Texas coasts on Thursday or Friday, June 20-21:

European Forecast Model Valid 7pm CDT Thursday, 6/20/13

There's no doubt that tropical weather is very difficult to forecast beyond 120 hours, much less 240 hours in the future as in this case.  With that said, you may  also recall that last season the European Model in particular had a very strong track record in indicating potential tropical development, even at longer range time periods.  



This will be interesting to watch...and will be the first test of "long range" model accuracy in the tropics this season.



It also serves as a reminder to those along the western and central Gulf Coast that it would be a good time to review/prepare your Tropical Weather Emergency Kit and Safety/Preparedness Tips just in case a system does threaten your area later this season.

Stay tuned for updates on this over the coming days...

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Tornado Threat Increasing Across Florida with T.S. Andrea...

The center of Tropical Storm Andrea is inching ever closer to the Florida "bend" at this hour, and the threat of tornadoes will continue to ramp up across the state today as this takes place...

The latest Tornado Watch is in effect until 10pm EDT:

Fortunately, with the center of Andrea so close to land, little in the way of additional strengthening is likely insofar as tropical characteristics are concerned.  

A deluge of heavy, potentially flooding rainfall will continue across Florida, southern Georgia and eventually South Carolina today, with the heavy rain forecast to spread North/Northeastward along the Eastern seaboard into the weekend:

For additional details, radar and satellite imagery on Tropical Storm Andrea, please click on the Tropical Weather link at the upper right hand corner of the blog homepage.

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