Update on Tropical System off Carolina Coasts...

The National Hurricane Center finally seems to be coming around to acknowledging the fact that we're dealing with something tropical off of the Carolina coasts.  If the system continues to develop as forecast, we may be dealing with Tropical Storm Alberto by tonight.




The latest visible satellite image is shown above, and I've also added a widget underneath the "Latest Headlines" box on the blog homepage.  The widget will update in real time throughout the life of the system.  Depending on the type of browser you're using, you may need to "refresh" if they don't do so automatically every once and awhile.  The images themselves will update about every 15 minutes.  A loop of the imagery is available at this link.

Right now, thinking has not changed since my last update, so please see that post for additional details.  Folks along the Carolina Coasts should continue to monitor this system over the weekend.

I'll post another full update later today, or earlier if conditions warrant...

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Disturbance Organizing Off of SC/NC Coasts...

Above is a recent visible satellite image showing an area of low pressure that is organizing to the immediate Southeast of the coasts of the Carolina's this morning (in the far upper right hand corner of the image).  Below is the same image zoomed in tightly on the SC/NC coastal bend:

Showers and thunderstorms are clearly visible across the northern and western sides of the system on the Wilmington area radar, and you can clearly see the circulation center about 95 nautical miles Southeast of the radar site, particularly when it is looped:

This system started to develop yesterday evening and has moved very little since then.  

The latest run of the high resolution NAM computer model brings the center of the system onshore tomorrow morning along the North Carolina coast.  The simulated radar image below is valid 12 Noon EDT and shows a still very compact system with heavy rain concentrated right around the center:

So far this system has not been officially classified as "tropical" (the National Hurricane Center says they are monitoring it).  None-the-less, folks along the Carolina coasts (and particularly from Charleston on Northward) should keep an eye on the system this weekend.  Wave action and rip currents will continue to increase all along the Carolina coastlines as this system meanders around today and moves closer to shore during the morning hours on Sunday, assuming the above model is correct (and based on recent trends, that appears to be the case).

We will continue to monitor this system and post any pertinent updates as conditions warrant.

For more information, including "live blogging" during rapidly changing weather events, please be sure to follow me on facebook and/or twitter:

 

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