Potent Round of Severe Weather Likely Later Today/Tonight...

After a preview yesterday evening in southeast Nebraska, severe weather activity has waned a bit over the last several hours.  However, folks in the upper Mississippi Valley and portions of the Midwest should not let their guards down - an even more potent threat of severe weather is on tap later this afternoon into this evening and tonight.

Above is the latest severe weather outlook for today and tonight, and is the portion that specifically addresses the potential for tornadoes, which will be highest within the brown and yellow shaded areas.  A strong tornado or two is also possible, mainly within the black hatched area.

A threat for large hail and damaging winds will extend well to the South into portions of Oklahoma and northwest Texas as well, with some of the hail likely to exceed 2 inches in diameter in the black hatched areas on this image:

It's been awhile since we've seen a pronounced severe weather threat across a good chunk of the nation, so please be sure to keep an eye to the sky and listen for local updates and warnings as the afternoon and evening progresses.



Unfortunately, a good deal of the activity will take place after dark and into tonight.  If you live across this region, please make sure that you have a way to receive weather warnings at night.

For more information from 'The Original Weather Blog', including shorter, more frequent posts during rapidly changing weather events, please be sure to follow me on facebook and twitter:

 

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Significant Severe Weather Episodes Likely Today and Tomorrow...

As mentioned in a post on Monday, the potential exists for a significant wind damage event from late this afternoon into this evening and tonight over a large portion of the Midwest and Ohio Valley region.  The area at greatest risk is within the yellow shaded and lavender hatched area on the above image, which includes the cities of Chicago, Indianapolis, Ft. Wayne and Columbus.

The activity may initially begin with one or more isolated, supercell type storms, particularly over extreme eastern Iowa into northern Illinois, where a strong tornado or two cannot be ruled out before the activity congeals into a larger complex later this evening.

Once the larger bow echo and/or thunderstorm complex forms, it will race East/Southeastward, producing very damaging winds in excess of hurricane force over a potentially large area across the Ohio Valley region into tonight.  People across this region should prepare for the possibility of extended duration power outages as a result of the widespread high wind threat.

If you live across this region, please be very alert from mid to late afternoon into the evening and nighttime hours.  Make sure that you have a way to receive weather warnings, including during the overnight hours tonight.

Due to the potential intensity of the wind with these storms, this is one of those rare situations where I would recommend that you treat a Severe Thunderstorm Warning the same way that you would treat a Tornado Warning.  Seek shelter below ground if possible, or in a small interior room away from outside walls and windows until the storm passes your location.  

The threat of severe weather will shift Southeast into the Mid-Atlantic and Delmarva regions on Thursday, with widespread wind damage possible once again, especially within the reddish-orange shaded area on the image below:

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Severe Threat Includes Widespread Damaging Winds This Week...

As we head deeper into the summer months, the threat for "significant" tornado activity generally tends to decrease, while the threat for very damaging straight line wind gusts increases - and that's definitely the type of pattern that appears to be shaping up for this week.



Below are the latest severe weather outlooks for today through Wednesday, respectively:

Today's severe weather threat will be characterized by generally short-lived "pulse" type thunderstorms that pop-up, produce gusty winds and marginally severe hail in spots, and then rapidly diminish.  An isolated tornado or two cannot be ruled out, but this will not be the dominant form of severe weather today.

For Tuesday and Wednesday, the threat for organized and/or widespread wind damage will increase, particularly across the green shaded areas on the outlook for those days.  The primary threat will exist from late afternoon into the evening and early nighttime hours on Tuesday and Wednesday.

Some of the wind gusts may indeed become very damaging (i.e., in excess of 80 mph) and widespread in the indicated areas.  This is the type of situation where you should treat a "Severe Thunderstorm Warning" just as you would a Tornado Warning, and seek shelter in a small interior room on the lowest floor until the storms pass.  In other words, please don't treat this situation like a "garden variety severe thunderstorm" event or you could be placing yourself or your family at greater risk of injury.

Stay tuned for updates as we head further into the week...

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Several Significant Severe Weather Events Likely Today...

We are likely to see several significant severe weather events across the Plains and Midwest today into early tonight.  All modes of severe weather will be possible, including tornadoes, large to very large hail, and the potential for very damaging straight line wind gusts over a fairly large geographic area.

Above is the latest severe weather outlook for today.  The highest potential for very large hail, tornadoes and potentially very damaging winds will exist within the reddish/orange shaded area, including the cities of Amarillo, Lawton, Woodward, Enid, Pratt, Great Bend and Colby.  Some of this threat could extend East as far as the I-35 corridor in the OKC Metro area late this evening or early tonight.

The potential exists for hail in excess of 2 inches in diameter and strong and/or long track tornadoes within the red/orange shaded area, so please pay particular attention to the weather in this region this afternoon through early tonight.

Otherwise, scattered severe storms with large hail and damaging winds are possible across the remainder of the outlook area, especially within the yellow and green shaded areas.  A few tornadoes are also possible with severe storms in these areas, especially with any storm that is able to remain isolated and become well organized.

Locally heavy rainfall will also be widespread across much of the same region today and tonight, with amounts in excess of 2 inches possible in areas with repeat thunderstorm activity:

If you live across the severe weather threat areas for today, please be alert, especially from mid to late afternoon through this evening and early tonight.  Be sure that you have a way to receive weather warnings, event at night after you go to bed.  Also, make sure that you've identified your best sheltering option at home, work or school so that you can move there quickly if threatening weather is observed or a warning is issued.

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Severe Weather Threat Shifts Southward Into Texas / Lower MS Valley Today...

As expected, the threat of severe weather is shifting Southward today, including a large part of the most heavily populated portion of Texas, as indicated in red on the above image.  

While some severe threat may develop as early as this morning across far northern Texas, the bulk of the severe threat is forecast to develop and/or increase from mid to late afternoon in to this evening.

Below are radar simulations as forecast by the high resolution NAM computer 

model, valid at 1pm and 4pm CDT today, respectively:

While its important not to take the forecast storm positions literally, this does give you a good idea as to where the bulk of the activity will be located at their respective times.

My main concern for the DFW Metroplex area (other than the severe weather threat itself) is the timing, which will be coincident or very near school release times across the area.  

As we move forward into this evening, the threat of severe weather will progress Eastward and Southward, including the Austin/San Antonio corridor along I-35 by late evening.  Below are the forecast radar images valid at 7pm and 10pm CDT, respectively:

Very large hail, damaging winds and tornadoes will be possible with all severe storms across Texas today, as well as within much of the red shaded area on the severe weather outlook image at the top of the post.

One or two strong and/or long track tornadoes are possible, again primarily within the red shaded area on the outlook map at the top of the post.  This threat includes the cities of Dallas/Ft. Worth, Waco, Temple, Austin, Shreveport and Texarkana.

Elsewhere throughout the severe weather outlook areas for today, large hail and wind damage will be the primary threats, with a few isolated tornadoes possible.

Please pay close attention to the weather if you live, work or have travel plans within the severe weather threat areas for today.  Make sure to identify your best sheltering option, and listen for later updates and warnings.

As the severe weather threat for today is now moving into the heart of our primary client base for WeatherGuidance, I may not be able to post many updates later today.  If I do, it will most likely be on facebook and/or twitter, so please follow me there if you aren't already...

For more information from 'The Original Weather Blog', including shorter, more frequent posts during rapidly changing weather events, please be sure to follow me on facebook and twitter:

 

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Severe Weather Update for Kansas/Oklahoma/Texas for Today...

Above is the latest analysis of CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) across the primary severe weather threat area for today.  CAPE is a measure of how unstable the atmosphere is, and the values in excess of 5,000 across Oklahoma and southwest Kansas are extreme by any measure.

A surface low pressure area is strengthening over the central Oklahoma panhandle area, with a dryling trailing off to the South and a warm front arching to the East then Southeast across central Oklahoma.

The winds are out of the East to Southeast along and immediately to either side of the warm front, which will provide favorable turning in the atmosphere to cause storms to rotate later this afternoon and evening.

Storms will likely initially form along and ahead of the dryline by late afternoon, and also along and North of the warm frontal boundary.

The latest run of the high resolution NAM model generally agrees with that scenario, as shown on the simulated radar forecast images valid at 4pm, 5pm, 6pm and 7pm today, respectively:

Tornadoes, very large hail and damaging winds will be possible with severe storms in this region today, with the highest risk located within the red and orangish-red shaded areas on the image below (which is unchanged from my earlier outlook):

Please stay weather aware in these areas - and be prepared to move to shelter quickly if threatening conditions are observed or a warning is issued.

As I mentioned in my post earlier today, graduation ceremonies and other events are abundant across the region this afternoon and evening.  If you are heading out to a public place, be sure to note your best sheltering option while entering the venue, just in case.  Many public places have signs like these to help direct you to a safe place, but be sure to identify them ahead of time, not in the heat of the moment when you're likely to be distracted:

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Severe Weather Back on the Table for This Weekend...

After a quiet few days, the threat of severe weather is expected to ramp up for this coming weekend...



Below are the severe weather outlooks for Saturday and Sunday, respectively:

All modes of severe weather will be possible in the indicated areas, from large hail and damaging winds to a few tornadoes.



The primary threat will take place from mid to late afternoon into the early nighttime hours each day.



It's been a relatively quiet spring so far in most of these areas, so please take a few moments this week to review your severe weather safety procedures, restock your emergency supplies and plan out your best sheltering options for the weekend.  That way you'll be all ready to go if severe weather impacts your area.



Stay tuned for more information over the coming days...

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Large Hail, Some Significant, Likely Today thru Friday...

After a severe weather "drought" (relatively speaking) over the last several days, the southern and central Plains are about to become active again today through Friday, with some risk of severe weather also extending East into the Ohio Valley Region as well.

The latest severe weather outlook for today is shown below, which includes a threat primarily to the West of the Oklahoma City and Wichita areas:

A cluster of thunderstorms moved East/Southeast along the Oklahoma/Kansas border area overnight and early this morning.  The decaying thunderstorm activity has laid down several outflow boundaries across southern Kansas as well as western and central Oklahoma.  One or more of these boundaries may serve to focus thunderstorm development late this afternoon and evening, in addition to development that is expected to take place further West along a surface dryline.

Large hail is likely with the activity today and early tonight, some of which may exceed 2 inches in diameter, especially within the green shaded area on the above image.  Damaging winds and a few isolated tornadoes are also possible.

A pronounced threat of large to very large hail appears to be taking shape for tomorrow afternoon and evening.  At this time the threat is expected to include the OKC Metro area, the DFW Metroplex and the Hill Country to the West of the Austin / San Antonio corridor along I-35:

Scattered strong to severe storms are also forecast to move East/Northeast into the Midwest and Ohio Valley Region Thursday afternoon and evening, with large hail the primary threat once again.

By Friday afternoon and evening, a threat of severe storms will settle Southeastward into the Austin/San Antonio area in Texas, on Northeastward into portions of the Ohio Valley and Northeast:

At this time there not any signals that "scream" tornado potential in association with activity in a particular area nor on a particular day.  The thing to watch (as is often the case) will be for any storms that are able to remain isolated and become well organized before being taken over by larger lines or clusters.

If you live across the indicated areas, please remain alert and make sure to have a way to receive severe weather warnings and updates.  Be sure to identify your best sheltering option, that way you can move there quickly if threatening weather is observed or a warning is issued for your area.

For more information from 'The Original Weather Blog', including shorter, more frequent posts during rapidly changing weather events, please be sure to follow me on facebook and twitter:

 

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A Combination of Spring and Winter for the First Week of May...

I know it's not the first full week of May this week, but the calendar will flip on Wednesday, and some of you may be flipping out over the (winter) weather by that time as well, so I figured the headline is justified...



A strong area of low pressure will move across the Plains and Midwest this week, producing a variety of weather conditions.  As I mentioned in a post last week, some of that will include a threat of snow in areas that are certainly not used to seeing such conditions in May of all months!



First, dealing with the severe weather threat, conditions appear to be coming together for isolated to scattered severe storms both Monday and Tuesday, and perhaps a threat of more widespread and significant severe weather in spots on Wednesday.



Below are the severe weather outlooks for the first 3 days of the work week, respectively:

As you can see, the threat is forecast to expand in both coverage and intensity as we progress through mid-week.  The primary severe weather threat for Monday and Tuesday will be large hail and damaging winds, with an increasing threat of tornadoes by Wednesday, particularly within the green shaded area on the last image above.

At least some threat of severe weather will shift into the eastern U.S. toward the end of the week, and folks in that region should stay tuned for updates over the upcoming days.

Now, on to the wintry side of things - yes, I said wintry even though today is April 28th, and we're talking about the first part of May!

The potential exists for measurable snow across significant portions of the central and northern Plains and Midwest for the latter one-half of the upcoming work week.

The image below shows the probability of 1 or more inch of snow accumulation for the period 7pm CDT Tuesday through 7pm CDT Wednesday (or nearly the first 24 hours of May):

Sure, it's not like the cities that are forecast to receive snow aren't used to it, but we're talking May for crying out loud.  Many locations across this region will break records for late season snowfall the way it looks right now (even if little more than an inch of accumulation takes place).

So, it looks like we're in for a wild and crazy week of weather for sure.  Buckle your seat belts and stay tuned!

For more information from 'The Original Weather Blog', including shorter, more frequent posts during rapidly changing weather events, please be sure to follow me on facebook and twitter:

 

Coming April, 2013:  "The Tornado Chronicles" full website!

• Interactive tornado database back to 1950 (earlier years coming soon)

• Interactive radar with live warnings and street-level zoom

• Tornado safety, preparedness and education

• Daily tornado/severe weather outlook

• Photos, videos and more!

Please show your support and follow The Tornado Chronicles on twitter and on facebook for the latest updates on tornadoes and the upcoming website!

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