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Showing posts with label Severe Weather Update. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Severe Weather Update. Show all posts

Monday, 20 May 2013

Tornado Watches In Effect Until 10pm...

Posted on 11:43 by shohan bella

...for southeast Kansas, western Missouri and a large part of central and eastern Oklahoma.  The extreme Northwest corner of Texas, in the Wichtia Falls area, is also included:









Very large hail (baseball size or larger) will be distinct possibility with thunderstorms that form within this area this afternoon and evening.  Tornadoes are also likely with the most organized storms, and one or more strong and/or long track tornadoes are possible.





The watch areas include Wichita Falls, Oklahoma City, Tulsa, Joplin, Springfield, Kansas City (although the threat there will only be for the next couple of hours), and the Columbia/Jefferson City area.





Scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop near the Western edge of the watches during the next 1-2 hours, and move Northeast.  The activity will likely congeal into one or more lines or clusters of storms toward sunset, which could threaten locations to the East of the current watch areas late this evening and into early tonight.  Damaging wind gusts will be the primary threat by that time.





The most dangerous time today will be from 45-60 minutes after any storm develops and matures, through about an hour or so after sunset.  Similar to yesterday, we are likely to see one or more strong, long track tornadoes with these storms, before they begin consolidating into lines or clusters.  Keep a very close eye on the cells that become well organized and remain relatively isolated from the rest of the activity.





Please make sure that you have identified your best sheltering option at home, work, school or recreational locations and be ready to move there quickly if threatening weather is observed or a warning is issued.







For more information from 'The Original Weather Blog', including shorter, more frequent posts during rapidly changing weather events, please be sure to follow me on facebook and twitter:











 



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Posted in Central U.S. Weather, Midwest Weather, Severe Weather Update, Southern Plains Weather, Weather In the News | No comments

Tuesday, 29 January 2013

Severe Weather Update for the Deep South / Lower MS Valley Region...

Posted on 15:02 by shohan bella







An area of shower and thunderstorm activity is developing over central and northern Louisiana at this hour, well ahead of a line of thunderstorms along the cold front further to the West and Northwest.





If this activity is able to organize and intensify this evening, a locally higher risk of tornadoes may result across northern Louisiana, southern and eastern Arkansas, western Mississippi and western Tennessee - as compared to what we've seen so far today.  This would especially be the case with any storms that are able to remain relatively isolated and become well organized.





Otherwise, a line of severe storms will move West to East across the region later this evening, as the cold front approaches from the West. The activity currently extending from Ft. Smith, AR to Dallas to Waco will intensify and become better organized as it moves East into the region this evening...










The primary threats with the line of activity will be intense wind damage, with possible brief tornado spin-ups, much like we've seen throughout the day today, though on a larger scale as the upper-level storm system to the West moves over the region and enhances lift.





If you live across the aforementioned areas of Louisiana, Arkansas, Mississippi and Tennessee, please remain alert this evening.  Make sure that you have a way to receive severe weather warnings, and be prepared to seek shelter immediately if threatening weather is observed or a warning is issued for your area.





Regardless of any specific tornado threat across the region, due to the strength of the jet stream winds that will be flowing across this region this evening and early tonight, wind damage could be particularly intense and widespread.  I strongly suggest taking the same precautions with a severe thunderstorm warning as you would with a tornado warning this evening, just to be safe.  Wind gusts well in excess of 70 or 80 mph will be possible with the strongest storms, regardless as to whether or not any specific tornado threat materializes.







For more information from 'The Original Weather Blog', including shorter, more frequent posts during rapidly changing weather events, please be sure to follow me on facebook and twitter:








 




Coming March 2013:  The Tornado Chronicles full website!



• Interactive tornado database back to 1950 (earlier years coming soon)


• Interactive radar with live warnings and street-level zoom


• Tornado safety, preparedness and education


• Daily tornado outlooks/threat index


• Photos, videos & more!




Please show your support and follow The Tornado Chronicles on twitter and on facebook for the latest updates on tornadoes and the upcoming website!








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Posted in Deep South Weather, MS Valley Weather, Severe Weather Update, Southern Plains Weather | No comments

Early Afternoon Severe Weather Update...

Posted on 11:45 by shohan bella







At 1:30 p.m. CST, a line of strong thunderstorms extended from northeast Missouri back to the southwest into western Texas.  The activity continues to develop along and ahead of a surface cold front (northern and central portions) and dryline (southern portion).





Individual thunderstorms are racing Northeast at 55-60 mph, while the line itself is moving East at about 25 mph on the southern end, and 45-50 mph on the northern end.


Tornado Watches continue this afternoon and evening in the areas shaded in lavender, with a Severe Thunderstorm watch shown in red over Texas:










The main energy associated with a strong middle and upper-level weather disturbance (currently centered over New Mexico) remains to the West of the thunderstorm line at this time, but is starting to approach the line in Texas:










As stronger middle and upper-level winds and other energy continue to advance toward and overspread the thunderstorm line later this afternoon, the activity will become more intense and will likely generate widespread wind damage at times, particularly in a region extending from northeast Texas into much of Arkansas, as shown within the lavender shaded and black hatched area on the image below:










This threat will shift East and Northeast into the Mississippi Valley region later this evening and into tonight.





Some of the winds could be particularly intense, in excess of 70 or 80 mph, due to the strong jet stream forcing that will come into play later today.  That type of wind can cause extensive damage, injuries and even death if you are in the wrong place at the wrong time, so please take the situation seriously.





A few tornadoes also cannot be ruled out, particularly in association with any storms that are able to form out ahead of the main line, and within circulations embedded within the line itself.  These types of circulations tend to be smaller, weaker and shorter lived than their supercell counterparts, which can make radar detection difficult - leading to little or no advanced warning.





With the potential for extreme winds rather high, I would strongly suggest treating a severe thunderstorm warning in the aforementioned areas today as you would a tornado warning.  In the least, move to the center most portion of your home or business and stay away from outside windows and doors until the storm passes your location.





Much of the severe weather threat for roughly the Eastern (and especially the southeastern) half of the outlook area will take place after dark or even overnight tonight.  Please make sure that you have a way to receive weather warnings at night if you live in these areas.







For more information from 'The Original Weather Blog', including shorter, more frequent posts during rapidly changing weather events, please be sure to follow me on facebook and twitter:








 




Coming March 2013:  The Tornado Chronicles full website!



• Interactive tornado database back to 1950 (earlier years coming soon)


• Interactive radar with live warnings and street-level zoom


• Tornado safety, preparedness and education


• Daily tornado outlooks/threat index


• Photos, videos & more!




Please show your support and follow The Tornado Chronicles on twitter and on facebook for the latest updates on tornadoes and the upcoming website!








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Posted in Central U.S. Weather, Deep South Weather, MS Valley Weather, Severe Weather Update, Southern Plains Weather, Weather In the News | No comments

Severe Weather Update for Texas...

Posted on 07:12 by shohan bella

Thunderstorms are developing southward into extreme northwest Texas along the cold front at this hour:









...and I expect them to increase in coverage and intensity and sweep through most of northcentral and northeast Texas this afternoon...including the DFW Metroplex region.  Damaging wind gusts and hail will be the primary threats, although an isolated tornado spin-up cannot be ruled out.





If any isolated storms are able to develop and become organized ahead of this line, the localized tornado threat would increase with such cells.





Further South, including the Austin-San Antonio corridor along I-35, its coming down to a battle of the atmosphere.  The low levels are very moist and will become increasingly unstable throughout the day, however a relatively strong "capping inversion" (also known as a "lid" - see the oldie but goodie link for details) is in place across the region.





Strong instability and increasing support from the upper level storm approaching from the West is likely to be able to overcome the cap and allow for thunderstorm development down at least part of the I-35 corridor later this afternoon... but the question is how far South?





One way to measure how unstable it is in the lower atmosphere is to look at an index called CAPE (convective available potential energy).  The current CAPE analysis shows high values starting to "pool" along the dryline in west-central and southwest Texas, as indicated by the green shaded area on the image below:










This pocket of instability is forecast to move Eastward into the Austin-San Antonio corridor and become even more unstable later this afternoon, as indicated by the brighter yellow shaded area on the forecast image below (valid at 3pm):









This could indeed be enough of a "push" to allow for thunderstorm development as far South as the Austin-San Antonio area late this afternoon.





As I've been saying for a few days now... this is one of those "all or nothing" situations.  If a storm is able to break through the cap and form in this region, it will tap that high instability and could become severe quickly, with large hail, damaging winds and an isolated tornado possible.





I would place the chance of a thunderstorm at 30-40% in Austin, 20-30% in the Kyle/Buda areas, and 20% in San Antonio.  If a storm is able to form in any of those areas, the chance of severe weather would be relatively high, so stay alert!





For more information from 'The Original Weather Blog', including shorter, more frequent posts during rapidly changing weather events, please be sure to follow me on facebook and twitter:








 




Coming March 2013:  The Tornado Chronicles full website!



• Interactive tornado database back to 1950 (earlier years coming soon)


• Interactive radar with live warnings and street-level zoom


• Tornado safety, preparedness and education


• Daily tornado outlooks/threat index


• Photos, videos & more!




Please show your support and follow The Tornado Chronicles on twitter and on facebook for the latest updates on tornadoes and the upcoming website!








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Posted in Severe Weather Update - TX, Severe Weather Update | No comments

Severe Weather Event Getting Underway...

Posted on 05:51 by shohan bella

As expected, thunderstorms formed during the pre-dawn hours from western Oklahoma into southeast Kansas and west-central Missouri.  The activity is racing toward the North/Northeast, while gradually shifting Eastward over time:









There have been isolated reports of hail and/or wind gusts near severe limits thus far in west-central Oklahoma, but nothing widespread or major through the time of this writing.





The development thus far has taken place ahead of a strong middle and upper level weather disturbance that is currently centered over the southern Rockies:










This disturbance will lift out to the Northeast during the day today, resulting in an increasing threat of severe weather (with respect to both coverage and intensity) across the southern and central Plains, Deep South and Mississippi Valley regions.





The latest severe weather outlook from the Storm Prediction Center is shown below, valid for today and tonight:










This particular graphic is focused on the wind damage threat, which I continue to believe will be the primary severe weather mode today and tonight.  The red and lavender shaded and black hatched areas are where intense, very damaging winds are possible over a fairly widespread area.  The jet stream will be blowing overhead of this region at speeds well in excess of 100 mph later today and tonight, and some of those intense winds are likely to "mix down" to the surface in association with some of the most severe storms.





While wind damage will be the primary severe weather mode today and tonight, there is still a risk of tornado development in two primary ways:





(1).  In association with any isolated storms that are able to form out ahead of the developing line or lines of storms





(2).  In association with any rotating "comma heads" or "dog legs" that form along the lines of storms





I took a screen shot of a "dog leg" on a small line in Oklahoma earlier this morning (circled in white on the following image):










The trick with the linear severe storm tornado situations is that the tornadoes tend to be very brief, making radar detection difficult.  As in the example above, on the next radar scan about 4 minutes later, the "dog leg" rotational signature was gone.





The best chance of tornado spin-ups today will be within the red and lavender shaded areas on the outlook image above.  Keep in mind that part of this risk (the Eastern portions of the risk area) will take place after dark and into tonight.





If any isolated storms are able to form ahead of the main line or lines, they could potentially produce a stronger or longer track tornado, but I do not expect this to be a general rule today.  Therefore, I believe using the term "tornado outbreak" does not apply to the situation today.  A severe weather outbreak is certainly possible, with wind damage being the primary feature.





Hail up to around 1 inch in diameter is also possible with the stronger storms.  A more vigorous storm or two could produce locally larger hail, but the overall scenario does not favor widespread large hail production today.





If you live in or near the severe weather threat areas for today and tonight, please remain alert.  Make sure that you have a way to receive severe weather warnings, including overnight tonight in the Deep South and Mississippi Valley region.





Please review your severe weather safety and sheltering tips this morning, that way you're ready to seek shelter at a moments notice later today if threatening weather approaches your area.





The best way to receive "live" updates from me today will be to follow on the twitter and/or facebook links below.  Radar and watch links will also be updated here on the blog homepage throughout the day, along the right hand side of the page.







For more information from 'The Original Weather Blog', including shorter, more frequent posts during rapidly changing weather events, please be sure to follow me on facebook and twitter:






 




Coming March 2013:  The Tornado Chronicles full website!



• Interactive tornado database back to 1950 (earlier years coming soon)


• Interactive radar with live warnings and street-level zoom


• Tornado safety, preparedness and education


• Daily tornado outlooks/threat index


• Photos, videos & more!




Please show your support and follow The Tornado Chronicles on twitter and on facebook for the latest updates on tornadoes and the upcoming website!








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Posted in Central U.S. Weather, Deep South Weather, MS Valley Weather, Severe Weather Outlook, Severe Weather Update, Southern Plains Weather | No comments

Wednesday, 26 December 2012

Severe Weather and Tornado Threat for Eastern North Carolina...

Posted on 10:34 by shohan bella







Radar currently indicates several small but intense thunderstorms offshore to the South of the Outer Banks of North Carolina.  These cells are moving toward the North/Northeast at 40-45 mph, and most of them show some degree of rotation on radar.





A Tornado Watch is in effect across eastern North Carolina as well as northeastern South Carolina, valid until 5pm EST:










If you live across the Eastern half of North Carolina, and especially far eastern portions of the state including the Outer Banks, please remain alert as these storms move through and others develop during the afternoon.  In this type of situation, tornadoes tend to develop quickly and may take place with little or no advanced warning.  As a result, it is important to identify your best sheltering option ahead of time, that way you can move there quickly if threatening weather is observed or a warning is issued.







For more information from 'The Original Weather Blog', including shorter, more frequent posts during rapidly changing weather events, please be sure to follow me on facebook and twitter:






 




If you are in need of highly customized, site specific weather forecasts and/or storm warnings for your business, school or event, be sure visit my professional webpage at WeatherGuidance.com.


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Posted in Severe Weather Update, Southeast U.S. Weather | No comments

Tuesday, 25 December 2012

Widespread, Tornadic Storms Across the Deep South...

Posted on 13:07 by shohan bella







A grand total of 10 tornado warnings are currently in effect, as indicated by the lavender polygons on the composite radar image above.





As I pointed out in my last post, we have a dual-mode severe weather situation underway.  The first is primarily wind damage or brief tornadoes associated with a line of severe thunderstorms, as circled in red on the same radar image below:









The second mode of severe weather are isolated cells developing ahead of the primary line, as shown within the broad yellow circle on the image above.  The greatest potential for strong and/or long track tornadoes will take place with the more isolated cells out ahead of the main line.





This is a very fluid situation, and storms are moving rapidly, generally at 50 mph or more toward the East or Northeast.  Therefore, folks in the path of the storms have a shorter period of time to react to a threat.  This is definitely the type of situation where you should not wait to seek shelter if threatening weather is approaching or a warning is issued for your area - please seek shelter immediately and without delay!





As far as radar indications of tornadoes are concerned, the most organized storm at the moment is bearing down on Poplarville, MS and surrounding areas:










Radar is indicating a strong tornadic signature on both the precipitation (left) and wind (right) modes of the radar.  This storm is racing Northeast at 55 mph, and you should seek immediate shelter if you are in its path.







For more information from 'The Original Weather Blog', including shorter, more frequent posts during rapidly changing weather events, please be sure to follow me on facebook and twitter:






 




If you are in need of highly customized, site specific weather forecasts and/or storm warnings for your business, school or event, be sure visit my professional webpage at WeatherGuidance.com.


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Posted in Deep South Weather, Severe Weather Update, Weather In the News | No comments

Wednesday, 19 December 2012

Tornado Watch Issued for Parts of OK - AR - MO - TX

Posted on 17:41 by shohan bella







Thunderstorms are forming rapidly along a dryline from southeastern Oklahoma into extreme northcentral Texas.  A Tornado Watch has just been issued, as shown in lavender, and is valid until 2am CST.  





Thunderstorms will increase in number and intensity as they move and/or develop East/Northeast across the region during the late evening and overnight hours.  





If you live in this region, as well as points East toward the Mississippi River Valley, please make sure that you have a way to receive severe weather warnings overnight tonight.







For more information from 'The Original Weather Blog', including shorter, more frequent posts during rapidly changing weather events, please be sure to follow me on facebook and twitter:






 




If you are in need of highly customized, site specific weather forecasts and/or storm warnings for your business, school or event, be sure visit my professional webpage at WeatherGuidance.com.








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Posted in Severe Weather Update, Weather In the News | No comments

Sunday, 10 June 2012

Major Flooding Continues Across the Central and Eastern Gulf Coast...

Posted on 09:52 by shohan bella







Major flooding continues across the Alabama and Florida Panhandle region of the Gulf Coast. The above image was taken in Pensacola, FL yesterday afternoon.





Rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 feet have been common across the region since early Saturday.  The Pensacola airport recorded 13.13 inches, and a cooperative station Southwest of the city reported 21.70 inches of rain.  The Mobile, AL airport recorded nearly 7 inches of rain:









Below is a "Storify" thread that we put together for our Top Story page on our sister site, WeatherGuidance.com.  We will be updating it throughout this event:











For complete coverage throughout the day and Monday, including real time radar imagery, rainfall totals, etc., please visit the dedicated page on WeatherGuidance.com.  







For more information, including "live blogging" during rapidly changing weather events, please be sure to follow me on facebook and/or twitter:








 

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Posted in Flooding, Severe Weather Update | No comments
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