Rare "High Risk" for Tornadoes/Severe Storms Midwest & OH Valley Today...

A rarely issued (especially for November) "High Risk" of tornadoes and severe thunderstorms has been issued by the SPC for today in the Midwest and Ohio Valley region.

As we mentioned yesterday, please stay very alert in this region today.  Storms will be fast moving, and due to the threat of extensive and intense wind damage with any severe storm, I highly recommend that you treat a Severe Thunderstorm Warning just as you would normally treat a Tornado Warning today, taking the same sheltering action when in harms way.

Thunderstorms will get underway by mid morning near the Western edge of the outlook areas, and race East/Northeast this afternoon and evening.  The highest risk of tornadoes is within the "High" risk area, with widespread wind damage the primary threat otherwise, and extending throughout the "moderate" and "high" risk areas.

If you or someone you know will be attending the Ravens/Bears game in Chicago today, please make sure to identify sheltering options as you enter the stadium and move there quickly if your smartphone app indicates that a Severe Thunderstorm or Tornado Warning has been issued for that location.

Below is a forecast radar image from the high resolution HRRR model valid at kick-off (12 Noon CST):

If this model verifies, and there is a good chance it will, several possible supercell thunderstorms will be approaching the stadium from the West at kick-off.

The situation will evolve rapidly from midday, with a squall line forecast to develop across much of the moderate/high risk area by 3pm CST:

The highest tornado potential will be with isolated storms that form initially from mid to late morning, and then isolated cells ahead of the line this afternoon.  Widespread, potentially significant, wind damage can be expected with all severe storms today, and especially as the more solid line forms this afternoon.

Thunderstorms will be very fast moving today across the entire threat area, so there will be little reaction time available.  If a warning is issued for your area, please seek immediate shelter.

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Regional Severe Weather Episode Likely for N. MO, S.E. IA and W. IL Tonight....

For good reason, a lot of attention is being paid to the expected severe weather episode across the Tennessee and Ohio Valley region for tomorrow.  As I mentioned in a post earlier this morning, that event has the potential to impact a large number of people with widespread, damaging winds and a few tornadoes.



With all of the attention being paid to tomorrow, I'm afraid that another event that appears to be taking shape for late this evening and tonight is being flat overlooked or quickly "brushed over".  Below is the latest WeatherGuidance severe weather outlook for this evening and tonight:

I am particularly concerned because 100% of the associated threat will take place after dark, and a significant portion of the threat will take place after Midnight, into the pre-dawn hours of Sunday.



Below is a forecast radar image from the high resolution NAM computer model, valid 8:00 PM this evening.  While it's important not to take the indicated storm positions literally, you get the idea that there will be isolated to scattered thunderstorms beginning to develop over northwestern Missouri around or shortly after that time period:

Jump ahead to 12 Midnight CST, and quite a cluster of strong to severe storms is depicted over southeast Iowa, northeast Missouri and west-central Illinois:

As these storms initially form late this evening and early tonight, large hail will be the primary threat.  As we move on in time toward and after 12 Midnight, a risk of tornadoes will also increase, as low to mid level wind profiles become more favorable for such development.

As I pointed out earlier, it is important not to take the forecast radar positions literally, so in general, folks across the Northern third of Missouri, the Southeastern third of Iowa, and west-central/northwest Illinois should be particularly alert for thunderstorm development late this evening and tonight.



If you live in or near the green shaded area on the top image, please make sure that you have a way to receive weather warnings overnight tonight, and have a sheltering plan in place before you go to bed, that way you can move there quickly if threatening weather is observed or a warning is issued for your area.

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Significant Severe Weather Episode Likely Sunday Across the OH/TN Valley Region...

Late fall is known for an occasional outbreak of severe weather, and unfortunately it looks like tomorrow will be just such a case.  While the threat of severe weather will exist generally along and East of the Mississippi River, the most widespread and potentially dangerous situation appears to be taking shape for much of the Ohio and Tennessee Valley region, as indicated in yellow on the above image.



By far, wind damage will be the primary threat from this event.  The potential exists for widespread, significant wind damage, particularly within the yellow shaded area on the image above.



A few tornadoes will also be possible, particularly early in the event when a few isolated storms may form along or ahead of the main line.  All storms, as well as any tornadoes, will be very fast moving, which will further increase the risk of people being caught off guard if they're not paying attention to the weather.  The primary risk will occur from afternoon into the evening, then spreading East overnight.



Below is the NAM forecast model depiction of what the radar may look like at 3:00 PM CST tomorrow:

As you can see, the model is already depicting a line of severe thunderstorms along the cold front by that time, but if you look closely toward the Southern end of the line, you'll see a few isolated cells, as well as a few isolated cells ahead of the line over Indiana and Kentucky.  While it's important not to focus on the exact locations of where storms are depicted by the model, it does give us a good idea as to the overall scenario that is likely to take shape.  Any isolated storms that form would need to be watched closely for tornado potential.

In addition to the "traditional" tornado threat associated with any isolated supercells that are able to form ahead of the main line, this is likely to be a situation where numerous "spin-ups" will occur along bowing segments within the overall line of storms throughout the event.  While any tornado touch downs with these line segments are likely to be brief, the associated wind damage potential will be intense.

If you live across the areas indicated above or have travel plans into this region on Sunday, especially from midday Sunday into the afternoon and evening, please stay aware of the weather and be ready to seek immediate shelter if you find yourself in a dangerous situation.  Storms will be very fast moving, so there will be little time to react in many cases, unfortunately.  Due to the potential for intense damaging winds, I also recommend treating a Severe Thunderstorm Warning as you would a Tornado Warning, especially in the yellow shaded area on the top image.

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Spring-Like Severe Weather Threat Later Today...

A spring-like severe weather situation is expected to take shape later this afternoon and this evening across the Plains, including a threat for tornadoes.

Large hail and damaging winds can be expected with severe storms that fire from western Kansas into the Oklahoma and Texas panhandle region later today, and a few tornadoes are possible, especially within the green and brown shaded areas on the image above.

This is a situation where the highest tornado potential may not develop for 2-3 hours after storms initially form, so if you plan to attend a high school football game in the area this evening, be sure to dust off the severe weather alert app just in case, and keep an eye to the sky!

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Severe Weather Threat Increasing Again Today thru Wednesday...

After a (thankfully) relatively quiet period with only isolated to scattered severe weather events on Saturday and Sunday, it looks like we're going to be lunged back into a more active pattern for this week...especially the first half of the week.



Below are the severe weather outlooks for today through Wednesday, respectively:

Right now, it appears that the most active day will likely be tomorrow, Tuesday, as the combination of middle and upper level jet stream winds and Southerly low level winds will be strongest during the afternoon and evening hours across portions of the central and southern High Plains.  This type of set up is likely to produce some of the more organized storms of the week, with the potential for very large hail and tornadoes with the strongest storms.

Otherwise, there will be a risk for damaging winds, large hail and a few tornadoes with severe storms today through Wednesday, with the highest risk located within the green and reddish-orange shaded areas on the above images.

The threat of severe weather will shift East/Southeast into portions of the Mississippi, Ohio and Tennessee Valley Regions on Thursday and/or Friday, but at this time there is too much uncertainty regarding the placement of low level boundaries to focus in on a particular area for an elevated threat.  Stay tuned for updates on that as we move through the week.

If you live or have travel plans across the severe weather threat areas, please stay alert, particularly during the afternoon and evening hours.  Make sure you have a plan in place ahead of time so that you can quickly get to shelter if threatening weather is observed or a warning is issued.

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Significant Hail and Tornado Threat Again Today in Oklahoma - Adjacent Areas...

As the saying goes, "there's no rest for the weary" and that will certainly be the case again today I'm afraid for our friends in  Oklahoma, northwest Arkansas and southern Missouri.

The latest severe weather outlook for today is shown above, and the reddish/orange shaded area shows a significant threat of severe weather, including the potential for strong and/or long track tornadoes and hail in excess of 2 inches in diameter.

The most pronounced threat of severe weather includes the cities of Tulsa, Oklahoma City, Joplin, Springfield and Fayetteville (much the same areas as yesterday).

Activity will develop and/or intensify by mid to late afternoon and continue into the evening, so please pay attention to the weather if you live or have travel plans across the region.

Please be sure that you have a way to receive weather warnings, even at night after you go to bed.  Also, make sure that you've identified your best sheltering option at home, work or school so that you can move there quickly if threatening weather is observed or a warning is issued.

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Significant - But Not Widespread - Severe Weather Threat Again Today...

There is a threat of significant severe weather across the Plains again today, within the red shaded area on the image above.  By significant, I am indicating that the potential exists for hail in excess of 2 inches in diameter and strong and/or long track tornadoes in this area.  

This threat includes the cities of Oklahoma City, Tulsa, Wichita Falls, Wichita, Emporia, Chanute, Joplin, Springfield, Fayetteville and Ft. Smith.

I noted in the headline that the threat would not be widespread, as the activity today is more likely to be isolated to scattered in coverage within the "significant" severe weather threat area.  While that may sound good from a coverage standpoint, those of you who live in the area know that it is bad news from a severe potential standpoint, as isolated, supercell storms are the ones that produce the most significant tornadoes and severe weather.

For that reason, please be on the alert in this area from mid to late afternoon into the evening hours especially.

I'll try and provide another update at midday or early afternoon once the situation begins to unfold.  Folks on the Western edge of the risk area would be impacted first, with the activity then spreading East/Northeastward over time.  It is much easier to post an update on facebook and/or twitter, so if you're interested in receiving more frequent updates, please be sure to follow me there if you haven't already.

If you live anywhere within the severe weather outlook areas for today and tonight, please be sure that you have a way to receive weather warnings, event at night after you go to bed.  Also, make sure that you've identified your best sheltering option at home, work or school so that you can move there quickly if threatening weather is observed or a warning is issued.

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Keep an Eye to the Sky This Week for Severe Weather Threats...

If you've been monitoring the severe weather outlook pages (2nd link on the right hand navigation menu here on the blog homepage) for the last few days, you've no doubt noticed an increase in the severe weather threat for the coming week, beginning today.

The latest outlooks for the next four days are shown below:

If you live in these areas, and especially within the green and/or red shaded areas, please pay particular attention to the weather, especially during the afternoon and evening hours each day.

Large hail, damaging winds and an increasing risk of tornadoes will be associated with the severe weather threat each day.

With lots of outdoor holiday plans in place for today across the Plains, make sure that you have a way to receive weather warnings no matter where you're at, and take a few moments to identify your best sheltering option, especially if you're in an unfamiliar place.

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Significant Severe Weather Likely Again Today - Including Much of Oklahoma...

Severe weather is likely again today, unfortunately in much the same area as yesterday (especially with regard to Oklahoma and southwest Missouri).  

Some of the storms could produce very large hail and one or two strong and/or long track tornadoes are possible, especially within the reddish-orange shaded area on the above image.

The primary threat will exist from mid to late afternoon into this evening.

Please pay very close attention to the weather in these areas today...and check back here for a more detailed update around midday.

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Significant Severe Weather Threat Continues Today & Monday...

Nothing has really changed since my detailed post yesterday morning.  Severe storms, including tornadoes and very large hail, are likely again today and Monday, primarily during the mid to late afternoon and evening to early nighttime hours each day.



Some of the severe weather events will be significant, and with the threat progressing Eastward into a much more heavily populated region, there could be several major impacts that take place today and Monday.



Here is the latest severe weather outlook for today:

...and for Monday:

...both of which are largely unchanged from yesterday's forecast for the same dates.

It still appears quite likely that one or more significant tornadoes (i.e., strong to violent and/or long track) will take place this afternoon and/or evening, especially within the reddish-orange shaded area on today's outlook.  This threat includes the cities of Oklahoma City, Tulsa, Joplin, Springfield, Wichita, Kansas City, Des Moines and Omaha.

In addition to the tornado threat, very large hail can be expected in this region, likely baseball size or larger in the strongest storms.  Damaging thunderstorm winds are also possible.

If you live in the severe weather threat areas for this afternoon and evening, please keep in mind that this is particularly dangerous situation.  Stay alert and make sure that you have (1). a way to receive weather warnings and (2). a pre-designated shelter or other safe place to go.

If you are attending a graduation or other public ceremony today, please be sure to identify the nearest shelter or safe area as you enter the location.  Many public venues in this part of the country display a sign or other symbol so as to direct you to the best location, like in these examples:

Please be sure to identify this safe area as you first arrive to the location, because if something unfortunate happens while you're there, it could become quite chaotic at that time.  There's no need to panic, and you won't have to if you already have a plan in place before there is any potential for bad weather.

Stay tuned for updates as the afternoon progresses.

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Significant Severe Weather, Including Tornadoes, Likely Today thru Monday...

As feared for much of the past week, a string of significant severe weather days will get underway starting today in the Plains...

The latest severe weather outlook for today is shown below:

The highest risk of significant severe weather will take place where the green (scattered severe storms) and red (significant severe storms) merge from southwestern Nebraska into much of the Western one-half of Kansas into northwestern Oklahoma.

Within this region, one or more strong and/or long track tornadoes are possible, along with very large hail in excess of 2 inches in diameter.  The significant hail threat will extend Southward into the red shaded region across northwest Texas and southwest Oklahoma as well.

The most significant severe risk for today includes the cities of North Platte, Goodland, Hays, Russell, Dodge City, Pratt, Great Bend and Woodward.

Thunderstorms are forecast to develop along and ahead of the dryline by late afternoon from western Kansas into northwestern Oklahoma.  Activity should be well underway by 7pm CDT, as depicted by this simulated radar image valid at that time via the high-resolution NAM computer model:

By that time, you can see that isolated development is also indicated over northwest Texas as well.  While one should not take the forecast radar positions as literal, it does give you a good idea as to the general areas where development is likely at a particular time.

The highest tornado potential will take place in association with any storm that is able to remain isolated and become well organized, mainly during the late afternoon through mid-evening hours.  Once the activity congeals into one or more larger clusters of storms by late evening, the tornado threat will decrease - but a pronounced large hail and damaging wind threat will continue.

Tomorrow, Sunday, continues to look particularly ominous.  This is mainly for two reasons:  (1).  the coverage and magnitude of potentially significant severe weather will increase and (2). the threat will shift Eastward into a more heavily populated region (as compared to today).

The outlook for tomorrow is shown below:

Once again, the highest risk of significant severe weather will exist within the red shaded area, including the cities of Oklahoma City, Tulsa, Wichita, Kansas City, Joplin, Omaha and Des Moines.

Strong to violent and/or long track tornadoes, very large hail and damaging winds will be a distinct possibility within this region on Sunday afternoon and evening.  This is a potentially dangerous and life threatening situation for the indicated areas, and folks living in the region or that have travel plans into the region should be on a high state of alert on Sunday afternoon and evening.

For Monday, a threat of significant severe weather will continue over the Sooner State, including the OKC and Tulsa areas once again:

If you live across the severe weather outlook areas for the next few days, please remain on a high state of alert and readiness.  Review your severe weather safety and preparedness tips ahead of time, and make sure that you've identified the best sheltering option at home, work, school, church or any other location that you may be.

I am particularly concerned with the high number of graduation ceremonies that are scheduled across the region both today and Sunday.  If you are in a large public arena or other venue, look for "Storm Shelter" or "Tornado Shelter" signs, like the ones shown below, as you enter the facility, that way you can move to a safe place quickly if severe weather threatens.  Additional sheltering tips are offered in my free Severe Weather Safety:  Seeking Shelter guide that you can download today.

Also make sure that you have a way to receive severe weather warnings no matter where you are.  There are numerous options out there today, including apps or other links that you can load directly on your smartphone.  

For more information from 'The Original Weather Blog', including shorter, more frequent posts during rapidly changing weather events, please be sure to follow me on facebook and twitter:

 

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