Severe Weather Moves to the Southeast Today...

A severe thunderstorm threat, including a few tornadoes, exists across portions of the Deep South and southeastern U.S. today.  A threat of mainly small hail and gusty winds extends Northward into the Tennessee and Ohio Valley regions as well.

A Tornado Watch is already in effect for portions of Louisiana and Mississippi, valid until 3pm CDT:

Additional severe weather watches will follow today, so please be sure to pay attention to the weather if you live in the severe weather outlook areas.

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Coming April, 2013:  "The Tornado Chronicles" full website!

• Interactive tornado database back to 1950 (earlier years coming soon)

• Interactive radar with live warnings and street-level zoom

• Tornado safety, preparedness and education

• Daily tornado/severe weather outlook

• Photos, videos and more!

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Severe Weather Threat MS Valley Region Today; Southeast Tomorrow...

The primary factor that prevented organized severe weather (other than quite a few hail reports) yesterday was the presence of a warm layer of air just above the surface, called a capping inversion.  While the "cap" won't be nearly as strong today across the Mississippi Valley region (which will lead to a relatively higher threat of severe weather) it will lead to widespread precipitation development which will mitigate just how intense some of the storms may become.

The highest threat of severe weather this afternoon and evening is forecast within the reddish-orange area on the image above.  This includes much of central and eastern Arkansas (including Little Rock), southeast Missouri and the Memphis area.

Large hail and damaging winds will be the primary severe threat today, however a few tornadoes are also possible, primarily within the aforementioned area in the middle and lower Mississippi Valley region.  The tornado threat would be particularly associated with any storm that is able to become well organized and remain isolated in nature, ahead of the more widespread line or lines of activity.

Elsewhere, isolated to scattered instances of mainly hail will be possible with stronger storms within the green and blue shaded areas.

If you live or have travel plans in the severe weather outlook areas for today or tonight, please review severe weather safety and preparedness tips and make sure you're ready to take action if threatening weather is observed or a warning is issued.

The threat of severe weather will shift into the Deep South and the southeastern U.S. tomorrow:

...again large hail and damaging winds will be the primary threats, with a risk of a tornado with any storm that is able to remain isolated and form out ahead of the more widespread activity.

For more information from 'The Original Weather Blog', including shorter, more frequent posts during rapidly changing weather events, please be sure to follow me on facebook and twitter:

 

Coming April, 2013:  "The Tornado Chronicles" full website!

• Interactive tornado database back to 1950 (earlier years coming soon)

• Interactive radar with live warnings and street-level zoom

• Tornado safety, preparedness and education

• Daily tornado/severe weather outlook

• Photos, videos and more!

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Severe Weather threat Deep South thru TN & OH Valley Region On Monday...

A strong disturbance in the upper atmosphere will combine with increasing low-level moisture and instability to produce a threat of severe weather across a fairly large area on Monday afternoon, evening and into Monday night.

Right now the wind profile in the lower through middle atmosphere is forecast to be most supportive of damaging straight line wind gusts, as well as hail around 1 inch in diameter.

An isolated tornado or two cannot be ruled out, especially within the green shaded area on the image above (click to enlarge).  We'll need to monitor the region closely on Monday for any specific areas where the surface winds are more of a South to Southeast direction, which would result in locally enhanced tornado potential in any such area.  Any isolated storms that form out ahead of the main line that is expected to develop should also be monitored closely for signs of tornado potential.

Widespread rainfall, some heavy, will also take place in association with this system on Monday.  Rainfall amounts in excess of 1 inch are likely from the lower Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley region on Monday and into Monday night:

If you live or have travel plans across the severe weather threat area for Monday, please pay attention to the weather.  Listen to NOAA Weather Radio, local media or another trusted source for the latest updates and possible warnings.

Make sure to identify your best sheltering option at home, work or school ahead of time, that way you can move there quickly if threatening weather is observed or a warning issued for your area.

For more information from 'The Original Weather Blog', including shorter, more frequent posts during rapidly changing weather events, please be sure to follow me on facebook and twitter:

 

Coming March 2013:  "The Tornado Chronicles" full website!

• Interactive tornado database back to 1950 (earlier years coming soon)

• Interactive radar with live warnings and street-level zoom

• Tornado safety, preparedness and education

• Daily tornado/severe weather outlook

• Photos, videos and more!

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Isolated Severe Weather Threat in the Mid-Atlantic Region Today and Plains Tonight...

A weak frontal boundary will interact with a gradually moistening low-level atmosphere to produce scattered thunderstorms from portions of the Tennessee Valley into the Mid-Atlantic region this afternoon and this evening.

A few of the storms could produce hail and wind gusts near severe limits, as shown by the blue shaded area on the image above (click to enlarge).  A significant and/or widespread severe weather episode is not expected.

Further West, isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop tonight from southeast Kansas and northeast Oklahoma, Eastward along the Arkansas/Missouri border.  There is a slight chance that one or two of these storms could produce hail approaching severe limits primarily after Midnight tonight and into the pre-dawn hours of Sunday, especially along the Arkansas/Missouri border region.

Our overall thoughts regarding the possibility of severe weather on Monday have not changed since the update yesterday afternoon.  I'll be posting another update on that situation by midday today.

For more information from 'The Original Weather Blog', including shorter, more frequent posts during rapidly changing weather events, please be sure to follow me on facebook and twitter:

 

Coming March 2013:  "The Tornado Chronicles" full website!

• Interactive tornado database back to 1950 (earlier years coming soon)

• Interactive radar with live warnings and street-level zoom

• Tornado safety, preparedness and education

• Daily tornado/severe weather outlook

• Photos, videos and more!

Please show your support and follow The Tornado Chronicles on twitter and on facebook for the latest updates on tornadoes and the upcoming website!

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Severe Weather Threat Ohio / Tennessee Valley into Deep South on Monday...

A surface cold front will interact with an increasingly moist, unstable low-level atmosphere and an upper-level weather disturbance to cause a threat of severe thunderstorms across portions of the Ohio and Tennessee Valley region, into the lower Mississippi River Valley and portions of the Deep South on Monday afternoon and evening.

The highest threat of severe weather is expected to take place within the green shaded area on the above image (click to enlarge), and will mainly occur from mid to late afternoon into the evening hours on Monday.



Right now it appears as though the wind profile from the surface to the middle atmosphere will be unfavorable for significant and/or widespread tornado development, favoring more of a damaging wind gust with isolated tornado type situation instead.

We will need to monitor particularly the low-level wind flow as the day approaches in order to identify any specific tornado threat that may arise.



Hail to around severe limits (1 inch in diameter) will also be possible with severe storms on Monday afternoon and evening.



If you live across this region, please continue to monitor updates on the forecast for Monday, and be prepared to enact your safety precautions should it appear that threatening weather will potentially impact your area.

For more information from 'The Original Weather Blog', including shorter, more frequent posts during rapidly changing weather events, please be sure to follow me on facebook and twitter:

 

Coming March 2013:  "The Tornado Chronicles" full website!

• Interactive tornado database back to 1950 (earlier years coming soon)

• Interactive radar with live warnings and street-level zoom

• Tornado safety, preparedness and education

• Daily tornado/severe weather outlook

• Photos, videos and more!

Please show your support and follow The Tornado Chronicles on twitter and on facebook for the latest updates on tornadoes and the upcoming website!

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Thunderstorms Coming Back Into the Picture This Weekend...

After enjoying relatively quiet weather conditions across the nation for much of this week, things are starting to "heat-up" just a bit for today through the weekend, especially across the eastern third of the country...



Scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop tonight in the Midwest and Ohio Valley region in response to an increasingly moist, unstable airmass moving into the region from the South.  A few of the storms may produce hail near severe limits, especially after sunset (click image to enlarge):

Thunderstorm activity will become a bit more widespread on Saturday, with a risk of severe storms across portions of the Mid-Atlantic during the afternoon and evening.  The primary threat in this region will be hail and wind gusts near severe limits (click image to enlarge):

There are signs that a more robust threat of severe weather may be taking shape for early next week (particularly Monday) across portions of the Ohio and Tennessee Valley region.  I'll have more on this threat in a detailed post later today...

For more information from 'The Original Weather Blog', including shorter, more frequent posts during rapidly changing weather events, please be sure to follow me on facebook and twitter:

 

Coming March 2013:  "The Tornado Chronicles" full website!

• Interactive tornado database back to 1950 (earlier years coming soon)

• Interactive radar with live warnings and street-level zoom

• Tornado safety, preparedness and education

• Daily tornado/severe weather outlook

• Photos, videos and more!

Please show your support and follow The Tornado Chronicles on twitter and on facebook for the latest updates on tornadoes and the upcoming website!

Read More