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Showing posts with label Ohio Valley Weather. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Ohio Valley Weather. Show all posts

Wednesday, 12 June 2013

Significant Severe Weather Episodes Likely Today and Tomorrow...

Posted on 09:53 by shohan bella









As mentioned in a post on Monday, the potential exists for a significant wind damage event from late this afternoon into this evening and tonight over a large portion of the Midwest and Ohio Valley region.  The area at greatest risk is within the yellow shaded and lavender hatched area on the above image, which includes the cities of Chicago, Indianapolis, Ft. Wayne and Columbus.





The activity may initially begin with one or more isolated, supercell type storms, particularly over extreme eastern Iowa into northern Illinois, where a strong tornado or two cannot be ruled out before the activity congeals into a larger complex later this evening.





Once the larger bow echo and/or thunderstorm complex forms, it will race East/Southeastward, producing very damaging winds in excess of hurricane force over a potentially large area across the Ohio Valley region into tonight.  People across this region should prepare for the possibility of extended duration power outages as a result of the widespread high wind threat.





If you live across this region, please be very alert from mid to late afternoon into the evening and nighttime hours.  Make sure that you have a way to receive weather warnings, including during the overnight hours tonight.





Due to the potential intensity of the wind with these storms, this is one of those rare situations where I would recommend that you treat a Severe Thunderstorm Warning the same way that you would treat a Tornado Warning.  Seek shelter below ground if possible, or in a small interior room away from outside walls and windows until the storm passes your location.  





The threat of severe weather will shift Southeast into the Mid-Atlantic and Delmarva regions on Thursday, with widespread wind damage possible once again, especially within the reddish-orange shaded area on the image below:









For more information from 'The Original Weather Blog', including shorter, more frequent posts during rapidly changing weather events, please be sure to follow me on facebook and twitter:













 




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Posted in Mid-Atlantic Weather, Midwest Weather, Northeast Weather, Ohio Valley Weather, Severe Weather Outlook, Weather In the News | No comments

Monday, 10 June 2013

Severe Threat Includes Widespread Damaging Winds This Week...

Posted on 06:20 by shohan bella

As we head deeper into the summer months, the threat for "significant" tornado activity generally tends to decrease, while the threat for very damaging straight line wind gusts increases - and that's definitely the type of pattern that appears to be shaping up for this week.



Below are the latest severe weather outlooks for today through Wednesday, respectively:

















Today's severe weather threat will be characterized by generally short-lived "pulse" type thunderstorms that pop-up, produce gusty winds and marginally severe hail in spots, and then rapidly diminish.  An isolated tornado or two cannot be ruled out, but this will not be the dominant form of severe weather today.





For Tuesday and Wednesday, the threat for organized and/or widespread wind damage will increase, particularly across the green shaded areas on the outlook for those days.  The primary threat will exist from late afternoon into the evening and early nighttime hours on Tuesday and Wednesday.





Some of the wind gusts may indeed become very damaging (i.e., in excess of 80 mph) and widespread in the indicated areas.  This is the type of situation where you should treat a "Severe Thunderstorm Warning" just as you would a Tornado Warning, and seek shelter in a small interior room on the lowest floor until the storms pass.  In other words, please don't treat this situation like a "garden variety severe thunderstorm" event or you could be placing yourself or your family at greater risk of injury.





Stay tuned for updates as we head further into the week...





For more information from 'The Original Weather Blog', including shorter, more frequent posts during rapidly changing weather events, please be sure to follow me on facebook and twitter:













 









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Posted in Central U.S. Weather, Midwest Weather, MS Valley Weather, Northern Plains Weather, Ohio Valley Weather, Severe Weather Outlook | No comments

Monday, 3 June 2013

Severe Weather Threat Increasing Again Today thru Wednesday...

Posted on 06:02 by shohan bella

After a (thankfully) relatively quiet period with only isolated to scattered severe weather events on Saturday and Sunday, it looks like we're going to be lunged back into a more active pattern for this week...especially the first half of the week.



Below are the severe weather outlooks for today through Wednesday, respectively:

















Right now, it appears that the most active day will likely be tomorrow, Tuesday, as the combination of middle and upper level jet stream winds and Southerly low level winds will be strongest during the afternoon and evening hours across portions of the central and southern High Plains.  This type of set up is likely to produce some of the more organized storms of the week, with the potential for very large hail and tornadoes with the strongest storms.





Otherwise, there will be a risk for damaging winds, large hail and a few tornadoes with severe storms today through Wednesday, with the highest risk located within the green and reddish-orange shaded areas on the above images.





The threat of severe weather will shift East/Southeast into portions of the Mississippi, Ohio and Tennessee Valley Regions on Thursday and/or Friday, but at this time there is too much uncertainty regarding the placement of low level boundaries to focus in on a particular area for an elevated threat.  Stay tuned for updates on that as we move through the week.





If you live or have travel plans across the severe weather threat areas, please stay alert, particularly during the afternoon and evening hours.  Make sure you have a plan in place ahead of time so that you can quickly get to shelter if threatening weather is observed or a warning is issued.





For more information from 'The Original Weather Blog', including shorter, more frequent posts during rapidly changing weather events, please be sure to follow me on facebook and twitter:











 



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Posted in Central U.S. Weather, Deep South Weather, Midwest Weather, MS Valley Weather, Ohio Valley Weather, Severe Weather Outlook, Southern Plains Weather | No comments

Wednesday, 29 May 2013

Several Significant Severe Weather Events Likely Today...

Posted on 06:53 by shohan bella







We are likely to see several significant severe weather events across the Plains and Midwest today into early tonight.  All modes of severe weather will be possible, including tornadoes, large to very large hail, and the potential for very damaging straight line wind gusts over a fairly large geographic area.





Above is the latest severe weather outlook for today.  The highest potential for very large hail, tornadoes and potentially very damaging winds will exist within the reddish/orange shaded area, including the cities of Amarillo, Lawton, Woodward, Enid, Pratt, Great Bend and Colby.  Some of this threat could extend East as far as the I-35 corridor in the OKC Metro area late this evening or early tonight.





The potential exists for hail in excess of 2 inches in diameter and strong and/or long track tornadoes within the red/orange shaded area, so please pay particular attention to the weather in this region this afternoon through early tonight.





Otherwise, scattered severe storms with large hail and damaging winds are possible across the remainder of the outlook area, especially within the yellow and green shaded areas.  A few tornadoes are also possible with severe storms in these areas, especially with any storm that is able to remain isolated and become well organized.





Locally heavy rainfall will also be widespread across much of the same region today and tonight, with amounts in excess of 2 inches possible in areas with repeat thunderstorm activity:










If you live across the severe weather threat areas for today, please be alert, especially from mid to late afternoon through this evening and early tonight.  Be sure that you have a way to receive weather warnings, event at night after you go to bed.  Also, make sure that you've identified your best sheltering option at home, work or school so that you can move there quickly if threatening weather is observed or a warning is issued.





For more information from 'The Original Weather Blog', including shorter, more frequent posts during rapidly changing weather events, please be sure to follow me on facebook and twitter:











 




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Posted in Central U.S. Weather, Midwest Weather, MS Valley Weather, Northeast Weather, Ohio Valley Weather, Severe Weather Outlook, Southern Plains Weather | No comments

Tuesday, 21 May 2013

Severe Weather Threat Shifts Southward Into Texas / Lower MS Valley Today...

Posted on 07:25 by shohan bella







As expected, the threat of severe weather is shifting Southward today, including a large part of the most heavily populated portion of Texas, as indicated in red on the above image.  





While some severe threat may develop as early as this morning across far northern Texas, the bulk of the severe threat is forecast to develop and/or increase from mid to late afternoon in to this evening.





Below are radar simulations as forecast by the high resolution NAM computer 

model, valid at 1pm and 4pm CDT today, respectively:













While its important not to take the forecast storm positions literally, this does give you a good idea as to where the bulk of the activity will be located at their respective times.





My main concern for the DFW Metroplex area (other than the severe weather threat itself) is the timing, which will be coincident or very near school release times across the area.  





As we move forward into this evening, the threat of severe weather will progress Eastward and Southward, including the Austin/San Antonio corridor along I-35 by late evening.  Below are the forecast radar images valid at 7pm and 10pm CDT, respectively:














Very large hail, damaging winds and tornadoes will be possible with all severe storms across Texas today, as well as within much of the red shaded area on the severe weather outlook image at the top of the post.





One or two strong and/or long track tornadoes are possible, again primarily within the red shaded area on the outlook map at the top of the post.  This threat includes the cities of Dallas/Ft. Worth, Waco, Temple, Austin, Shreveport and Texarkana.





Elsewhere throughout the severe weather outlook areas for today, large hail and wind damage will be the primary threats, with a few isolated tornadoes possible.





Please pay close attention to the weather if you live, work or have travel plans within the severe weather threat areas for today.  Make sure to identify your best sheltering option, and listen for later updates and warnings.





As the severe weather threat for today is now moving into the heart of our primary client base for WeatherGuidance, I may not be able to post many updates later today.  If I do, it will most likely be on facebook and/or twitter, so please follow me there if you aren't already...







For more information from 'The Original Weather Blog', including shorter, more frequent posts during rapidly changing weather events, please be sure to follow me on facebook and twitter:











 



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Posted in Deep South Weather, Midwest Weather, MS Valley Weather, Northeast Weather, Ohio Valley Weather, Severe Weather Outlook, Southern Plains Weather | No comments

Monday, 20 May 2013

Significant Severe Weather Likely Again Today - Including Much of Oklahoma...

Posted on 06:02 by shohan bella







Severe weather is likely again today, unfortunately in much the same area as yesterday (especially with regard to Oklahoma and southwest Missouri).  





Some of the storms could produce very large hail and one or two strong and/or long track tornadoes are possible, especially within the reddish-orange shaded area on the above image.





The primary threat will exist from mid to late afternoon into this evening.





Please pay very close attention to the weather in these areas today...and check back here for a more detailed update around midday.







For more information from 'The Original Weather Blog', including shorter, more frequent posts during rapidly changing weather events, please be sure to follow me on facebook and twitter:











 



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Posted in Central U.S. Weather, Midwest Weather, Ohio Valley Weather, Severe Weather Outlook, Southern Plains Weather | No comments

Wednesday, 8 May 2013

Large Hail, Some Significant, Likely Today thru Friday...

Posted on 09:37 by shohan bella


After a severe weather "drought" (relatively speaking) over the last several days, the southern and central Plains are about to become active again today through Friday, with some risk of severe weather also extending East into the Ohio Valley Region as well.





The latest severe weather outlook for today is shown below, which includes a threat primarily to the West of the Oklahoma City and Wichita areas:










A cluster of thunderstorms moved East/Southeast along the Oklahoma/Kansas border area overnight and early this morning.  The decaying thunderstorm activity has laid down several outflow boundaries across southern Kansas as well as western and central Oklahoma.  One or more of these boundaries may serve to focus thunderstorm development late this afternoon and evening, in addition to development that is expected to take place further West along a surface dryline.





Large hail is likely with the activity today and early tonight, some of which may exceed 2 inches in diameter, especially within the green shaded area on the above image.  Damaging winds and a few isolated tornadoes are also possible.





A pronounced threat of large to very large hail appears to be taking shape for tomorrow afternoon and evening.  At this time the threat is expected to include the OKC Metro area, the DFW Metroplex and the Hill Country to the West of the Austin / San Antonio corridor along I-35:









Scattered strong to severe storms are also forecast to move East/Northeast into the Midwest and Ohio Valley Region Thursday afternoon and evening, with large hail the primary threat once again.





By Friday afternoon and evening, a threat of severe storms will settle Southeastward into the Austin/San Antonio area in Texas, on Northeastward into portions of the Ohio Valley and Northeast:









At this time there not any signals that "scream" tornado potential in association with activity in a particular area nor on a particular day.  The thing to watch (as is often the case) will be for any storms that are able to remain isolated and become well organized before being taken over by larger lines or clusters.





If you live across the indicated areas, please remain alert and make sure to have a way to receive severe weather warnings and updates.  Be sure to identify your best sheltering option, that way you can move there quickly if threatening weather is observed or a warning is issued for your area.







For more information from 'The Original Weather Blog', including shorter, more frequent posts during rapidly changing weather events, please be sure to follow me on facebook and twitter:








 


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Posted in Central U.S. Weather, Mid-Atlantic Weather, Midwest Weather, Northeast Weather, Ohio Valley Weather, Severe Weather Outlook, Southern Plains Weather | No comments

Sunday, 28 April 2013

A Combination of Spring and Winter for the First Week of May...

Posted on 14:33 by shohan bella

I know it's not the first full week of May this week, but the calendar will flip on Wednesday, and some of you may be flipping out over the (winter) weather by that time as well, so I figured the headline is justified...



A strong area of low pressure will move across the Plains and Midwest this week, producing a variety of weather conditions.  As I mentioned in a post last week, some of that will include a threat of snow in areas that are certainly not used to seeing such conditions in May of all months!



First, dealing with the severe weather threat, conditions appear to be coming together for isolated to scattered severe storms both Monday and Tuesday, and perhaps a threat of more widespread and significant severe weather in spots on Wednesday.



Below are the severe weather outlooks for the first 3 days of the work week, respectively:

















As you can see, the threat is forecast to expand in both coverage and intensity as we progress through mid-week.  The primary severe weather threat for Monday and Tuesday will be large hail and damaging winds, with an increasing threat of tornadoes by Wednesday, particularly within the green shaded area on the last image above.





At least some threat of severe weather will shift into the eastern U.S. toward the end of the week, and folks in that region should stay tuned for updates over the upcoming days.





Now, on to the wintry side of things - yes, I said wintry even though today is April 28th, and we're talking about the first part of May!





The potential exists for measurable snow across significant portions of the central and northern Plains and Midwest for the latter one-half of the upcoming work week.





The image below shows the probability of 1 or more inch of snow accumulation for the period 7pm CDT Tuesday through 7pm CDT Wednesday (or nearly the first 24 hours of May):










Sure, it's not like the cities that are forecast to receive snow aren't used to it, but we're talking May for crying out loud.  Many locations across this region will break records for late season snowfall the way it looks right now (even if little more than an inch of accumulation takes place).





So, it looks like we're in for a wild and crazy week of weather for sure.  Buckle your seat belts and stay tuned!







For more information from 'The Original Weather Blog', including shorter, more frequent posts during rapidly changing weather events, please be sure to follow me on facebook and twitter:








 




Coming April, 2013:  "The Tornado Chronicles" full website!



• Interactive tornado database back to 1950 (earlier years coming soon)


• Interactive radar with live warnings and street-level zoom


• Tornado safety, preparedness and education


• Daily tornado/severe weather outlook


• Photos, videos and more!




Please show your support and follow The Tornado Chronicles on twitter and on facebook for the latest updates on tornadoes and the upcoming website!








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Posted in Central U.S. Weather, Midwest Weather, MS Valley Weather, Ohio Valley Weather, Severe Weather Outlook, Southern Plains Weather, Weather In the News | No comments

Thursday, 18 April 2013

Severe Weather Shifts into Ohio/Tennessee Valley Today...

Posted on 07:48 by shohan bella







The threat of severe weather continues to shift Eastward today, with the primary concern extending from the Ohio and Tennessee Valley region into primarily Northern portions of the lower Mississippi Valley.





All severe weather modes are expected, from hail and damaging winds to tornadoes.  There is some risk of a strong tornado or two, particularly in association with any storm that is able to form out ahead of the main line and become well organized.  A wind damage threat will also be widespread, especially within the yellow shaded and red hatched area on the image above.





Tornado Watches are already in effect within the pink shaded areas on the map below:










The red shaded area indicates a "Particularly Dangerous Situation" Tornado Watch which includes the cities of Indianapolis and Ft. Wayne.





While some circulations or generally brief spin-ups are certainly possible along the main thunderstorm line, as I mentioned above, the strongest tornado threat would be in association with any storms that form out ahead of the line, so be sure to watch for that if you live in these areas.





The wind damage could also become particularly widespread and intense in some areas, particularly within the red hatched area on the top image.  This is a day to take Severe Thunderstorm Warnings for high winds seriously, particularly in these areas.






If you live in or have travel plans across this region today or tonight, please make sure to pay attention to the weather and be ready to seek shelter on short notice, no matter where you may find yourself.  






For more information from 'The Original Weather Blog', including shorter, more frequent posts during rapidly changing weather events, please be sure to follow me on facebook and twitter:








 




Coming April, 2013:  "The Tornado Chronicles" full website!



• Interactive tornado database back to 1950 (earlier years coming soon)


• Interactive radar with live warnings and street-level zoom


• Tornado safety, preparedness and education


• Daily tornado/severe weather outlook


• Photos, videos and more!




Please show your support and follow The Tornado Chronicles on twitter and on facebook for the latest updates on tornadoes and the upcoming website!








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Posted in Deep South Weather, Midwest Weather, MS Valley Weather, Ohio Valley Weather, Severe Weather Outlook | No comments

Wednesday, 17 April 2013

Severe Weather Threat Plains/Midwest Today; A Strong Tornado Is Possible...

Posted on 06:40 by shohan bella





As we've been talking about for several days now, today appears to hold the highest potential for significant severe weather across the central U.S.  Above is the latest severe weather forecast for today (which is unchanged from the outlook that we provided yesterday).



I expect strong to severe thunderstorms to become widespread within the yellowish-green shaded area by late this afternoon and this evening.  Some of the storms within this area will be capable of producing very large hail (greater than 2 inches in diameter), damaging winds and a few tornadoes.  A strong and/or long track tornado is possible in this area.  



This enhanced risk of severe weather includes the cities of Wichita Falls, Lawton, Altus, Oklahoma City, Tulsa, Chanute and Joplin.  If you live or have travel plans in these areas, please be on a high state of alert this afternoon, evening and tonight.



Elsewhere, a threat of strong to severe storms will exist across a rather broad area extending from northwest and west-central Texas into the Midwest.  Large hail and damaging winds are likely with any severe storms that form in these areas, and an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out, especially within the green shaded area.



If you live or have travel plans in the severe weather risk areas for today, please remain alert.  Listen to NOAA Weather Radio, local media or another trusted source for the latest information, watches and possible warnings.  Make sure to identify the best sheltering option wherever you'll be this afternoon and evening, and be ready to move there quickly if threatening weather is observed or a warning is issued.  






For more information from 'The Original Weather Blog', including shorter, more frequent posts during rapidly changing weather events, please be sure to follow me on facebook and twitter:








 




Coming April, 2013:  "The Tornado Chronicles" full website!



• Interactive tornado database back to 1950 (earlier years coming soon)


• Interactive radar with live warnings and street-level zoom


• Tornado safety, preparedness and education


• Daily tornado/severe weather outlook


• Photos, videos and more!




Please show your support and follow The Tornado Chronicles on twitter and on facebook for the latest updates on tornadoes and the upcoming website!








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Posted in Central U.S. Weather, Midwest Weather, MS Valley Weather, Ohio Valley Weather, Severe Weather Outlook, Southern Plains Weather | No comments

Tuesday, 16 April 2013

Update on Severe Weather Threats This Week...

Posted on 06:47 by shohan bella


A strong area of low pressure in the middle and upper atmosphere will move East into an increasingly moist and unstable airmass over the Plains the next few days, resulting in several rounds of severe weather.





Below is the latest outlook for today:










It's important to keep in mind that since we'll still be well out ahead of the main upper-level energy today, the severe weather threat will be relatively scattered in nature (albeit across a potentially large geographic area as shown above).





Large hail and damaging winds are the primary concerns this afternoon and evening, with an isolated tornado threat across mainly the West Texas portion of the outlook (shown in green).





A more widespread threat of severe weather, some possibly significant, is taking shape for tomorrow:









Large hail and damaging wind gusts will be widespread with the activity tomorrow, along with a threat of tornadoes.  As I pointed out in a post on Sunday, the primary mitigating factor for significant tornado development tomorrow is the fact that we will (1). have widespread activity fairly early on in the day that will tend to cut down on the instability in some areas and (2). the primary focus for severe thunderstorm development during the peak heating hours will be in the form of a line along the cold front.  This tends to create more of a damaging wind threat than a significant tornado threat.





As I pointed out on Sunday, it will be important to monitor any storms that are able to form out ahead of the main line and remain relatively isolated.  If such a storm becomes well organized, then a strong tornado is possible.  Please be sure to keep an eye out for those types of storms on Wednesday afternoon and evening, especially if you live or have travel plans within the yellow shaded and red-hatched area on the image above.





For Thursday, the severe weather threat will shift East/Southeast into the Mississippi Valley region:









Widespread, locally heavy rainfall can also be expected in association with the system this week, with rainfall amounts in excess of 3-4 inches across much of the Midwest:












If you live or have travel plans across the severe weather threat areas described above for the next few days, please stay alert and make sure that you have a way to receive weather warnings, and that your best sheltering location has been prepared just in case!







For more information from 'The Original Weather Blog', including shorter, more frequent posts during rapidly changing weather events, please be sure to follow me on facebook and twitter:








 




Coming April, 2013:  "The Tornado Chronicles" full website!



• Interactive tornado database back to 1950 (earlier years coming soon)


• Interactive radar with live warnings and street-level zoom


• Tornado safety, preparedness and education


• Daily tornado/severe weather outlook


• Photos, videos and more!




Please show your support and follow The Tornado Chronicles on twitter and on facebook for the latest updates on tornadoes and the upcoming website!











Read More
Posted in Central U.S. Weather, Deep South Weather, Midwest Weather, MS Valley Weather, Ohio Valley Weather, Severe Weather Outlook, Southern Plains Weather | No comments
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