Severe Weather About to Get Underway in the Plains...

Above are Tornado Watches that have gone into effect within the last hour.  Expiration times are noted in white inside of each watch box.  Very large hail and tornadoes are possible with any storm that forms in these areas, and strong and/or long track tornadoes are possible, especially in the Oklahoma and eastern Kansas watch areas.



Already, one storm is strengthening rapidly right out of the box, almost half way between Anthony and Wichita, KS.  

This storm bears watching and is moving in the general direction of Wichita.



I will post as many pertinent updates as I can this afternoon, but most likely on Facebook and/or Twitter rather than here on the blog (as I can get the word out much faster that way), so please follow me there if you haven't already...and most of all, stay safe!

For more information from 'The Original Weather Blog', including shorter, more frequent posts during rapidly changing weather events, please be sure to follow me on facebook and twitter:

 

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Severe Weather Update: Central/Southern Plains...

Tornado Watches are now in effect for the areas outlined in pink on the above composite radar image.  The watches run through the evening hours and include the cities of Wichita Falls, Oklahoma City, Tulsa, Kansas City, Joplin, Springfield, Columbia, Jefferson City and St. Louis.



As you can see, thunderstorms continue to form along the Western and northern peripheries of the watch areas and move to the North/Northeast.  This trend will continue throughout the remainder of the afternoon, with very large hail and damaging wind gusts possible with most any storm that forms and becomes severe.



Over time, the wind profile will become more and more favorable for the development of tornadoes, particularly across the Oklahoma and northwest Texas watch area, into southeast Kansas.  One or more strong and/or long track tornadoes are possible in this area mainly from late afternoon into this evening.



If you live in or have travel plans across this region this afternoon or evening, please make sure to pay attention to the weather and be ready to seek shelter on short notice, no matter where you may find yourself.  Also, folks near the Eastern edge of these watches and on Eastward need to be sure to have a way to receive weather warnings overnight tonight, as the threat will continue into the later hours...

For more information from 'The Original Weather Blog', including shorter, more frequent posts during rapidly changing weather events, please be sure to follow me on facebook and twitter:

 

Coming April, 2013:  "The Tornado Chronicles" full website!

• Interactive tornado database back to 1950 (earlier years coming soon)

• Interactive radar with live warnings and street-level zoom

• Tornado safety, preparedness and education

• Daily tornado/severe weather outlook

• Photos, videos and more!

Please show your support and follow The Tornado Chronicles on twitter and on facebook for the latest updates on tornadoes and the upcoming website!

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Cold Front Moving Into Oklahoma; Will Focus Storms a Bit Later...

In today's episode of "Where's Waldo:  Cold Front Edition" I give you the above Wind Chill and Heat Index map showing current conditions across the great state of Oklahoma...

That sharp contrast in temperature will focus strong to severe thunderstorm development this afternoon and evening.  I still feel that southwest through central Oklahoma will have the highest threat of very large hail and a few tornadoes, with wind damage and some hail the primary threat further East this evening.

This close-up visible satellite image below shows clouds beginning to tower along the cold front from near Childress, TX up Northeast into southwestern Oklahoma at this hour:

All of the green and orange car symbols show the current location of storm chasers that are converging into the area in anticipation of the afternoon's developments.

Stay tuned, it's liable to get pretty wild a bit later this afternoon...

If you live or have travel plans across the area this afternoon or evening, please be sure to stay alert and make sure that you have a way to receive severe weather warnings - no matter what time of day it is or where you might be.

For more information from 'The Original Weather Blog', including shorter, more frequent posts during rapidly changing weather events, please be sure to follow me on facebook and twitter:

 

Coming April, 2013:  "The Tornado Chronicles" full website!

• Interactive tornado database back to 1950 (earlier years coming soon)

• Interactive radar with live warnings and street-level zoom

• Tornado safety, preparedness and education

• Daily tornado/severe weather outlook

• Photos, videos and more!

Please show your support and follow The Tornado Chronicles on twitter and on facebook for the latest updates on tornadoes and the upcoming website!

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Severe Weather Continues; Shifting into Southeast/Mid-Atlantic...

Strong to severe thunderstorms continue this morning along a strong cold front that currently stretches from near Buffalo, NY to New Orleans:

The front will continue Eastward during the day, with widespread wind damage a continued threat, especially over the southeast U.S. and mid-Atlantic regions, as shown by the red shaded and black hatched area on the image below:

Within this region, which includes the cities of Columbus, Atlanta, Columbia, Charlotte, Raleigh and Roanoke, damaging wind gusts may exceed 70 mph in some areas.  Such intense winds can cause just as many (or even more) problems as your "average" tornado, so please take the threat seriously if you live in this region.

Like yesterday, a few isolated tornadoes cannot be ruled out, however the primary threat will be wind damage, some of which could be significant.

Any tornado threat would primarily come in the form of brief spin-ups in rotating comma heads or "dog leg" signatures on radar.  Any isolated storms that are able to become well organized out ahead of the main line would have a locally higher potential for a tornado, but this would be a relatively isolated threat.

Elsewhere, strong to at times severe storms will be possible across a broad swath of the eastern U.S. today (as indicated by the yellow and brown shaded areas on the above image).  Here again, wind damage will be the primary threat.

If you live across the severe weather threat areas for today, please pay attention to the weather.  Review your severe weather safety and preparedness tips and be ready to seek shelter quickly if threatening weather is observed or a warning is issued for your area.

For more information from 'The Original Weather Blog', including shorter, more frequent posts during rapidly changing weather events, please be sure to follow me on facebook and twitter:

 

Coming March 2013:  The Tornado Chronicles full website!

• Interactive tornado database back to 1950 (earlier years coming soon)

• Interactive radar with live warnings and street-level zoom

• Tornado safety, preparedness and education

• Daily tornado outlooks/threat index

• Photos, videos & more!

Please show your support and follow The Tornado Chronicles on twitter and on facebook for the latest updates on tornadoes and the upcoming website!

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Tornado Threat Eastern Arkansas / Adjacent Portions of TN/MS This Evening...

Heads-up central and eastern Arkansas - I fully expect a Tornado Watch to be issued soon for your area.

Above is the latest shot of the Little Rock radar, and I've circled in red where thunderstorms are likely to initiate over the next 1-2 hours.

Once developed, storms will move Northeast fairly quickly, with a threat of damaging winds, hail and tornadoes.  A few of the tornadoes could be strong and/or have a long track.  

The threat of severe weather, including tornadoes, will shift East toward Memphis as well as the remainder of western Tennessee, northwestern Mississippi and the Missouri bootheel region later this evening and early tonight.

A threat of tornadoes will exist after dark across this region, especially in western Tennessee and northwestern and west-central Mississippi.  Make sure that you have a way to receive severe weather warnings at night if you live in this region and be sure to have a sheltering location ready to go so that you can move there quickly if threatening weather is observed or a warning is issued for your area.

This is one of those situations where I also advise that you go stay with a friend or relative if you live in a mobile home across this region.  Mobile homes are no match for the type of severe winds and/or tornadoes that could be witnessed across the region this evening and tonight.  

For more information from 'The Original Weather Blog', including shorter, more frequent posts during rapidly changing weather events, please be sure to follow Rob on facebook and twitter:

 

If you are in need of customized, site specific weather forecasts or storm warnings for your company or event, be sure visit Rob's professional webpage at WeatherGuidance.com.

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Complex, Potentially Dangerous Severe Weather Situation This Afternoon and Evening...

A highly complex and equally dangerous scenario is shaping up in the Plains later this afternoon and into this evening.  The potential exists for one or more significant episodes of severe weather on a regional and/or local scale, with large (1-2 inch diameter) to very large (2+ inch diameter) hail, damaging winds (in excess of 70 mph) and tornadoes all possible.  I also continue to believe that one or more strong and/or long track tornadoes are possible.

First, the current situation and outlook for Kansas, Oklahoma, Missouri and Arkansas.  Showers and thunderstorms extend from northwest Missouri across southeast Kansas and into southwest Oklahoma and west-central Texas at this hour:

This activity is non-severe, though it is producing quite a bit of lightning, and is complicating matters insofar as the rain cooled air is preventing the low levels of the atmosphere from becoming more unstable.  Recent visible satellite imagery is indicating numerous breaks and/or thin spots forming in the overcast over central Kansas, western Oklahoma and west-central Texas, as shown by the yellow arrows on the image below:

As cloudiness thins and/or erodes this afternoon, this should allow for additional heating and destabilization of the atmosphere across this region.

The latest run of the high resolution NAM computer model is forecasting thunderstorm activity to break out in central and southcentral Kansas by 4-5pm CDT:

...and in western and central Oklahoma by 5-6pm:

While I would not take to the bank the fact that storms will be in the exact locations shown on the above images at their respective times, I do agree with the idea that thunderstorm activity will break out in these general areas by late afternoon into early evening.  I also agree that, at least initially, some of the storms will be discrete (i.e., isolated) in nature.  It is that type of storm that will be the most capable of producing tornadoes, one or more of which could become strong and/or have a longer than normal track.

This is a potentially dangerous weather situation for the indicated areas.  Please do not be lured into a false sense of security because of the lack of a "moderate" or "high" risk severe weather forecast from the National Weather Service.  If you live in central or eastern Kansas, central or eastern Oklahoma, as well as adjacent portions of Missouri and Arkansas, please pay close attention to the weather this afternoon, evening and early tonight.

Later this evening this activity is forecast to congeal into one more clusters of thunderstorms with an increasing threat of damaging straight line winds, and less of a tornado threat.  The same computer model forecast valid at 10pm this evening indicates an intense squall line extending from near Kansas City to Tulsa to the DFW Metroplex region:

Again, the locations may not be exact as this is only a computer model simulation, but I do agree with the overall idea shown above.

Further South in Northwest and West-Central Texas, thunderstorms are forecast to develop along the cool front and/or dryline in northwest and west central Texas by mid afternoon.  The sun is shining ahead of the frontal boundary in northwest Texas, which is allowing the atmosphere to destabilize rapidly.

Initially, the activity will be isolated to scattered in nature, with large hail, damaging winds and a few tornadoes possible.  

Here again, as indicated by the last computer model image above, the activity will eventually congeal into a more solid line by mid to late evening, with a more pronounced threat of damaging winds developing by that time.

In southcentral Texas, short-range computer models continue to suggest that a few thunderstorms may develop along the I-35 corridor from Austin to San Antonio between 5pm and 9pm this evening.  Any such development would be taking place well ahead of the frontal boundary over West Texas, and appears to be focused on the nose of strong moisture flowing North from the Gulf of Mexico, and beneath a band of increasing winds in the middle and upper atmosphere:

If an isolated or scattered storm were to develop in this region (as noted within the red circled area on the above computer model forecast image valid at 7pm CDT), large hail and damaging wind gusts would be possible, along with torrential rainfall.  While the chance of a storm at any given location in this region is only 30 percent, the chance of severe weather would be close to 100 percent if this development is realized.  This is what we call a "conditional" risk of severe weather.

Regardless of the potential for isolated development in southcentral Texas this evening, by later tonight the activity in Northwest and west-central Texas will continue to develop Southward, with a swath of torrential rain and gusty wind producing thunderstorms likely by dawn across southcentral through east-central Texas.  The computer model forecast below is valid 6am CDT Sunday morning, and supports this idea quite well:

If you live in the severe weather threat areas for today and/or tonight, please pay particular attention to the weather.  Listen to NOAA Weather Radio, local media or another trusted source for the latest information, watches and possible warnings.  

Take the time now to make sure your severe weather safety kit is prepared and/or re-stocked, and be sure to identify your best sheltering options so that you can move there quickly if need be.

For more information from 'The Original Weather Blog', including shorter, more frequent posts during rapidly changing weather events, please be sure to follow Rob on facebook and twitter:

 

If you are in need of customized, site specific weather forecasts or storm warnings for your company or event, be sure visit Rob's professional webpage at WeatherGuidance.com.

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Severe Storms Initiating Over New Mexico; West Texas Soon...

A thunderstorm is rapidly intensifying over southeast New Mexico, near Carlsbad.  This storm is moving Northeast and folks in its path have recently been placed under a Severe Thunderstorm Warning (red polygon on the radar image above).

This storm is developing on the leading edge of increasing instability that is flowing Northeast across the region around the base of a strong upper-level storm system currently centered along the Arizona/Utah/Nevada border region:

Additional development is likely along the New Mexico / Texas border and into West Texas and the panhandle region during the evening hours.

Large hail, damaging winds and a few tornadoes are possible with this activity.  I would expect a severe weather watch to be issued for this region soon...

If you will be attending the homecoming festivities at Texas Tech in Lubbock this evening, or any of the high school football games from Amarillo to Lubbock, make sure to keep an eye on the sky and be prepared to move out quickly if threatening weather approaches.

For more information from 'The Original Weather Blog', including shorter, more frequent posts during rapidly changing weather events, please be sure to follow Rob on facebook and twitter:

 

If you are in need of customized, site specific weather forecasts or storm warnings for your company or event, be sure visit Rob's professional webpage at WeatherGuidance.com.

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Severe Weather Update - OH Valley / Northeast

The latest radar mosaic image above shows several lines of strong to severe thunderstorms across the Ohio Valley and Northeast. The most severe activity at this time extends along the two main lines, dissecting Pennsylvania from Northeast to Southwest, and across central and southern Ohio.  

Damaging straight line wind gusts are the primary threat in this region along and ahead of these storms, although some brief tornado spin-ups are possible with some of the more organized embedded storms.  Such storms are currently located over northeast Pennsylvania to either side of the Wilkes-Barre / Scranton areas.

A Tornado Watch is in effect for this region until 9pm EDT, as shown in red on the image below.  Severe Thunderstorm Watches continue throughout the evening for the areas noted in blue on the same image:

In this type of situation, the highest tornado potential is along the rotating comma heads associated with bands or short lines of thunderstorms that produce strong, damaging wind gusts.  This type of tornado activity tends to be short lived, however if you happen to be unlucky enough to be in the path of one, it really makes no difference how long lived it is when its causing damage to your property.  The other bad thing about this type of tornado is that they tend to develop quickly and dissipate just as quickly, not allowing much time for radar detection (if any).

Here is an example showing the two storms that I referenced above to either side of the Wilkes-Barre / Scranton, PA areas.  The tornado warning areas shown in lavender, and you can see that they coincide with the location of enhanced signatures on radar near the bowing or "dog leg" segments of the line:

Thus far, no actual ground reports of tornadoes have been received with this activity, but that certainly does not mean that it hasn't happened or will not happen in the near term.

In this type of situation, damaging wind gusts may exceed 70 mph with severe storms across the Tornado and Severe Thunderstorm Watch areas this evening.  With that in mind, I highly suggest that folks in the path of these storms seek shelter as if there was a tornado, that way you are protected from both the potentially strong, damaging winds, as well as any brief tornadoes that may in fact spin up if you are in an area favored for such development.

Large hail is also possible, which can cause additional heavy damage when driven by strong wind gusts.

Based on the present location and movement of this activity, a threat of widespread severe weather will spread into the Philadelphia and New York City Metro areas by 7 to 8 o'clock this evening.  This timing could come an hour or so early if the storms suddenly gain forward speed over the next hour (which is possible as they intensify and produce strong outflow winds).

If you live across the region ahead of these storms, pay attention to the weather this evening and be prepared to move to shelter immediately if threatening conditions are observed or a warning is issued for your area.

For more information from the Original Weather Blog, including "live blogging" during rapidly changing weather events, please be sure to follow me on facebook and/or twitter:

 

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Severe Storms Expected Near the Front Range / Adjacent High Plains Today...

A slow moving frontal boundary is expected to focus the development of strong to severe thunderstorms later this afternoon and this evening across the Front Range of the Rockies and into the adjacent high plains of the Nebraska panhandle.

I've circled an area of swelling cumulus clouds in yellow on the above visible satellite image, which is approximately just ahead of the frontal boundary over the Nebraska panhandle and northeast Colorado.

This area may be one of the first in which thunderstorms develop within the next few hours, as well as back to the Southwest along the boundary near the Front Range (including the Denver Metro area).

Below is the latest severe weather outlook for today from the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) in Norman, OK.  The severe weather threat area for this region is outlined in yellow, as well as one further to the North across portions of the Dakota's:

Very large hail and strong, possibly damaging wind gusts are the primary threats with the activity today.  A few tornadoes also cannot be ruled out, particularly in association with any storms that are able to remain isolated and become well organized.

If you live along the Front Range of Colorado and Wyoming, Eastward into the adjacent high plains, remain alert this afternoon and be prepared to seek shelter if threatening weather is observed or a warning is issued for your area.

For more information, including "live blogging" during rapidly changing weather events, please be sure to follow me on facebook and/or twitter:

 

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Upper-Level Low Pressure System to Bring Soaking Rains to the Lone Star State...

An area of low pressure in the middle and upper levels of the atmosphere is taking shape over northwest Texas an the southern panhandle region this morning:

The low will meander slowly to the Southeast over the next 2-3 days, producing an increasing number of shower and thunderstorm activity near and ahead of it.

Some of the storms this afternoon and evening may become severe across northwest and west-central Texas, with large hail being the primary threat.

Widespread rain will take place in association with this system especially during the day Wednesday and into at least early Friday.  Locally heavy amounts of 2-4 inches are possible, especially in the darker purple shaded areas on the image below: 

As you can see, widespread rains of 1-2 inches are likely in a fairly broad swath extending from northwest Texas into the central and southeast part of the state through Friday morning.

For more information, including "live blogging" during rapidly changing weather events, please be sure to follow me on facebook and/or twitter:

 

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Severe Weather In An Unusual Location Today...

The above Severe Thunderstorm Watch was just issued for portions of western Montana, eastern Washington, eastern Oregon and western and northern Idaho.  It is valid until Midnight this evening, Pacific Time.

A vigorous upper-level weather disturbance is moving into the region from the West and will result in widespread thunderstorm development across the region later this afternoon and into this evening.  Large hail and damaging winds are likely, and even a few tornadoes are possible.

Folks across this region should pay attention to the weather this afternoon and evening.  Take a few minutes to review these severe weather safety tips, and be sure to identify the safest place for you to go should threatening weather be observed or a warning be issued for your area.

You can view a Northwest regional radar here, and we'll be monitoring for any particular hot spots later today and put up a local radar sector as well...

For more information, including "live blogging" during rapidly changing weather events, please be sure to follow me on facebook and/or twitter:

 

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