Recent Study Suggests Storm Chasers Positively Contribute to Tornado Awareness...

Following the deadly events in Moore and El Reno, OK in May, there was much discussion of "banning" or otherwise placing significant restrictions on storm chasers.



It's easy to jump to conclusions and make hasty declarations following such a devastating and traumatic event.  I think in the ensuing days, calmer heads have prevailed, and there is even some recent statistical evidence that suggests storm chasers have positively contributed to tornado awareness, which we know has a direct impact on tornado safety.



Research performed by Laura E. Michaels, Kelsey N. Scheitlin, and Ian J. Elsner (to be published in the Weather, Climate and Society Journal later this year) shows that it is just as common for a tornado to be reported well away from population centers today as it is near the city itself.  



In the past, reports of tornadoes were far more common near population centers than in rural areas, as illustrated by the chart below (I've inserted metric to English conversions at the bottom):

As you can see, during the most recent period of 2002-2011, you're almost as likely to hear of a tornado report "in the country" as you are "in the city".  James Elsner, one of the researchers involved in the study, states on his blog "we show evidence that this (result) could be related in part to an increase in the number of storm chasers..."

Meteorologists have long known of the contribution that responsible storm chasers make to severe weather awareness and safety, but as far as I know there hasn't been a formal study made that puts some "numbers" behind the suggestion. Perhaps this will be the one.  I look forward to reading the full publication and will post a review here on the blog when it becomes available.

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Surviving a Tornado Above Ground vs. Driving Away From It: More El Reno Tornado Controversy from 5-31-13...

Before the news of "storm chaser" deaths associated with the tornadoes near El Reno, OK on May 31, 2013, the big buzz within some parts of the media and across the entire severe weather safety community had to do with scenes like the one above - a heavily congested I-35 heading South out of Oklahoma City, away from the incoming storms.



So, what exactly are we looking at here?  Is this simply rush hour traffic on a Friday afternoon?  Is this a scene showing people attempting to flee the tornado warned area and get out of the danger zone?  Could it be some of both?  



Assuming that even part of the congestion was caused by folks attempting to flee the danger zone, why would they do that instead of "sheltering in place" as they have been advised to do for many years?  Was it because of the devastation that they had witnessed in Moore just over one week earlier, or were they following someone else's advice in a moment of fear and/or panic?  Again, could it be some of both?



If they were following another person's advice, chances are that it was that of meteorologist Mike Morgan at KFOR-TV.  Mike was part of KFOR's live coverage that was broadcast not only on their air, but also on radio stations and internet streams that afternoon and evening.  KFOR is also an NBC affiliate, so The Weather Channel (which is owned by NBC Universal) also carried significant portions of KFOR's coverage live, including segments like this one below.



Pay particular attention to Mike's words from about 0:50 to 1:25 into the video:

My main takeaway was that his advice to residents was:

• You can't survive this tornado if you're not underground

• Get away (in your vehicle) from the tornado if you don't have adequate shelter

This particular segment addressed the threat to residents of Yukon, but a very similar (if not identical) message was relayed as tornadoes threatened El Reno, south Oklahoma City and other areas as well.

So, was this good advice or was it not?  In my opinion, the answer is mostly "no", but to be completely fair, let's take a closer look at each point:

• "You can't survive this tornado if you're not underground..."  Obviously, that's not a true statement, as nothing is impossible when it comes to tornado survival.  In the least, this was a poor choice of words, but they were the same words that he would repeat numerous times that day.

With that said, it is absolutely true that if you want to ensure your survival in a strong or violent tornado situation, your best bet is always to shelter below ground.  This is not a news bulletin to anyone living in Oklahoma or other areas that are frequented by strong and violent tornadoes.  It's a fact of life (literally).

Another important point to remember when considering the underground vs. above ground sheltering option is that it's not necessarily a "direct hit" by a tornado that causes deaths.  More often than not, tornado deaths are the result of debris hitting the victim in the head, chest or torso, and that can happen well away from the actual "center" of the tornado's path.  This is the main reason, in my opinion, that getting below ground is always the best, safest option, if such an option is available...

...and many folks in this region do have such an option, either via a basement or storm cellar that has been in place for years, or via a storm shelter  that has been installed following violent tornado events of recent years).

Many folks in this area also have a friend or relative that has such an option if they don't have one of their own - but you have to assess the threat well ahead of time (i.e., when the Tornado Watch is issued - don't wait for the Warning) and be able to safely get to that location well before the actual threat exists.

• "Get away from the tornado if you don't have adequate shelter..." Very good advice, but not when you have only minutes to react.  This is particularly the case when you live in a heavily populated metropolitan area where roads can become congested quickly on their own, much less in an emergency evacuation type situation.

For years now, I've been advising residents of mobile homes and other vulnerable locations without a nearby sheltering option to leave their home and go to a friend or relative's house or other more suitable structure as soon as a Tornado Watch is issued for their area.  You absolutely do not want to try and flee by vehicle once you're in a warning situation, particularly in a heavily populated area where there is a potential for you to get stuck on a log jammed roadway.

Should you do this every time a Tornado Watch is issued?  That's a matter of personal opinion and is unique to your specific situation.  If you are "scared to death" in almost any tornado situation, then you probably should.  If you're only concerned about "the big one", you'll likely be given clues by trusted meteorologists and other sources before the event actually begins to unfold.  On my blog, I always use words like "pay particular attention to the weather in this area", or "one or more strong and/or long track tornadoes are possible today" when trying to get the word out about a particularly volatile situation.

After making repeated statements like the ones in the video above, many were understandably quick to jump on Mike Morgan's case over the weekend, particularly when it was revealed that several of the deaths in the OKC Metro area on Friday took place on roadways.  While I believe that his intentions were probably good, I feel that he delivered the advice either (1). using a poor choice and/or combination of words and/or (2). when it was too late for people to safely do something about their situation, potentially causing more of a "panic" mode.

In my opinion, the 12 Noon newscast that day (if not before) would have been the time to suggest that folks line up a more suitable sheltering option if they weren't comfortable with the one they would have later in the afternoon and evening.  That would have given folks some time to contact a friend or relative, make a plan and not have to rush out in a moment of panic into a potentially dangerous situation.

The fact of the matter is that we'll probably never know why all of the people that did choose to flee made that decision on Friday.  Not everyone in OKC watches KFOR-TV or The Weather Channel.  I feel that many probably reacted that way when they heard that another potentially devastating tornado was headed their way again, especially after what they had witnessed in Moore the week before.  Add some traditional and/or social media "hysteria" to the mix, and you have all of the necessary ingredients for a full blown panic situation for some.

Without a doubt, the combination of rush hour traffic, people fleeing based on bad advice and people fleeing based on their own fear of the situation turned out to be a major problem for almost all involved, and it may have even resulted in death for a select number (although that is difficult to quantify based on the information that we have to date).  A tragic situation anyway you look at it, and one that could have been avoided last Friday and should be avoided in the future.

"No Other Options"

So, what do you do if you don't have an underground shelter and a strong or violent tornado will potentially affect your location in minutes?

Do the same thing you've been told to do since Kindergarten:  get in a small interior room or hallway on the lowest floor of your location and cover your head and upper body as much as possible.

Bathrooms and closets offer great protection, but be sure to put as many walls between you and the exterior of your location as possible (don't go to one on the outside wall).  The bathroom is probably the best option in this case, as the pipes in the walls may offer additional support and protection.

If you have a bicycle, motorcycle, football or other type of "crash helmet", put it on, especially on the kids.  Head injuries are among the leading causes of tornado fatalities, particularly in children.  

"Caught In the Car"

If you are caught in your vehicle and a tornado is approaching (whether you're stuck in rush hour traffic, blocked by a flooded road or took some bad advice and tried to run away from the tornado when it was too late), by all means get out of the vehicle!

I was shocked and appalled to see the American Red Cross of all people recommend last year that it was "safe" to stay seat belted in your car if a tornado was approaching.  I could not disagree more, and the statistics from Joplin, Moore, and most recently in El Reno prove that without a doubt, a vehicle is no safe place to be during a strong or violent tornado.

If you are caught in your vehicle and have no way to safely get out of the situation, leave your car immediately and lay low in a ditch, ravine or other low spot.  Again, cover your head and upper body as much as possible, and if you have a helmet available, put it on!

As I always try to point out, you can survive a tornado regardless of your circumstances.  The main thing is to plan ahead, that way you are less likely to panic and make a bad decision when the critical time does come.

Our thoughts and prayers continue to be with the folks that have been devastated by tornadoes over the last month, and we hope that the worst of this season is behind us - but please take some time to prepare and have a safety action plan in place now, just in case another threat does develop in your area.

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Thoughts on the Death of Tim Samaras; Overall Tornado Chase Situation in El Reno OK on 5-31-13...

I was both shocked and saddened to hear that severe weather researcher and storm chaser Tim Samaras (pictured above, photo courtesy National Geographic) was one of those killed by tornadoes in the Oklahoma City / El Reno areas on Friday afternoon, May 31, 2013.

Tim was not the type of storm chaser that you'd "expect" to see in that type of headline.  If I had to use three words to describe Tim's approach to tornado chasing they would be experienced, professional and cautious.  He was certainly not what I would call a "hot shot", nor was he out there to make himself famous via dramatic, too close for comfort photos and/or videos.  He was a severe weather researcher - a true scientist and had done work sponsored by both the National Science Foundation and the National Geographic Society.

With that said, let's be brutally honest about something:  One of Tim's primary missions was to place meteorological instrument packages in the paths of oncoming tornadoes.  He had been doing this for years, and with considerable success.  In fact, on June 24, 2003, one of his probes measured the steepest pressure drop in the world (100mb in 40 seconds) as an EF-4 intensity tornado passed over the probe near Manchester South Dakota:

Why do I say "let's be brutally honest" when leading into this part of the discussion?  Because when your mission is to place probes or other devices in the path of an oncoming tornado, sooner or later, no matter how cautious and/or experienced you are, the odds of something "bad" happening are bound to catch up with you.  

Under such a scenario, "bad" could range from as little as your vehicle being stranded on a flooded roadway or damaged by flying debris, to the ultimate definition of the term - your seemingly untimely death.  Unfortunately, the latter form of the word was exactly what happened to Tim and his crew on Friday (his son, Paul Samaras, age 24, and fellow researcher/chaser Carl Young, age 45, were also killed).

I cannot confirm that the photo below is indeed one of Tim's research vehicles after coming in contact with a tornado near El Reno on Friday, but "major" media outlets in the Oklahoma City area are reporting it as such:

Regardless of who's vehicle this was, the destruction is noteworthy from an educational standpoint.  That's the engine block laying out beside the vehicle, which had been carried some distance before being dropped and/or thrown by the tornado.  A vehicle is no place to be during a tornado, despite some shocking "advice" to the contrary that came out from the American Red Cross of all places last year.  I wholeheartedly disagree with anyone who says it's safer to ride out a tornado in your vehicle than in a ditch, ravine or other low lying area.  I think the image above (as well as countless others from Moore earlier in May as well as other events) speaks for itself on that point.

According to the medical examiner's office, Tim's body was found still seat belted in his vehicle, while the other two members of his crew were removed from their vehicle and their bodies were found some distance away (reportedly 1/2 mile or more).

I do not report the above information to be morbid or to show lack of respect for those lost, I am doing it to further prove a point:  tornado chasing is a serious, very dangerous business.  I know Tim counseled "up and coming" chasers to that end before, and I am sure he would continue to do that now if he had the opportunity.  It's not a game or a contest to see who can be closest and first with dramatic videos - it's serious business.

So, how did the odds catch up to him, and why were the results so deadly?  There were likely multiple factors at play, but I think one overall theme is emerging from the events of Friday:  this was a complex supercell thunderstorm, which did not behave "normally" in many ways.

The El Reno / south OKC supercell was very large and had multiple circulations taking place at (or very near) the same time.  Meteorologists (and presumably storm chasers) know that a major circulation will "cycle" from time to time.  That is where the original circulation weakens and/or diminishes and is replaced by a new circulation to the right or left of the original.  

The photo below captures what was likely one of several "cycles" that took place with the El Reno storm on Friday.  It was taken by the Basehunters storm chase team:

Note the remnant/decreasing circulation on the right, and  the newly forming circulation and condensation funnel on the left.

In the above photo, the replacement tornado was relatively close to the original.  This is not always the case, as a considerable distance can exist between the two (actually, that is quite common).

Another hazard in the "cycle" situation is that the parent thunderstorm can also send out a significant amount of non-tornadic downburst and/or straight line winds when the transition is taking place.  I found myself caught by such a burst of wind in Nebraska on a chase way back in 1990, and I was nearly blown off of the road in my chase vehicle.  I believe this is what happened to the Weather Channel's chase team on Friday when their vehicle was flipped over, rolled and heavily damaged (thankfully, all were able to walk away):

After my experience in 1990, I increased the distance that I had already set for myself as far as how close I would get to the parent circulation of a supercell.  That's easy to do if you're just plain "chasing", but if your mission is to place probes in front of the tornado's likely path, increasing the "safe zone" can be a difficult task to achieve.

Another contributing factor was that this supercell was what we call "high precipitation" meaning it contained copious amounts of torrential rain and hail, both of which can obscure the general circulation and tornado threat considerably.

Flash Flood Warnings were in effect simultaneously with tornado warnings on Friday, which creates another potential hazard for those out on the roadways.  The radar snapshot below shows a close-up of the OKC Metro and the storm in question on Friday.  As you can see, heavy rain and hail (yellows and reds) were widespread and extended almost in all directions from the parent circulation, which as of the time of this image was circled in white:

The bottom line is that if you find yourself too close to the beast (meaning the general circulation or mesocyclone) in such a large supercell and a cycle begins to take place quickly, as was the case multiple times on Friday, you can be caught off guard and the results can be disastrous.

I've (thus far) silently observed calls this weekend for storm chasing to be "banned" or for a permit or license to be required.  That's pure nonsense.  You can't legislate or regulate a human being's right to observe his or her natural surroundings (or at least you shouldn't be able to if we truly reside in a free land).

Lots of things in life are dangerous.  Do you need a permit to climb a mountain?  How about the rattle snake hunts that are held in various parts of the southwest each year?  As far as I know, you don't need a permit to participate, and quite frankly, I'd rather responsibly chase a tornado any day rather than poke around under rocks for venomous snakes who are ultimately unhappy to see me.

In my opinion, many in the "mainstream" are far to quick to call for government intervention now days.  This all comes down to personal responsibility.  Anyone is free to go out and observe the wonders of nature, which includes violent thunderstorms and tornadoes, and that's the way it ought to be.  But as I always caution folks (and I know that Tim did, too), the inexperienced should never attempt to do this alone - always make sure that an experienced chaser is on board.

Sadly, knowledge and experience did not save Tim and his crew on Friday.  While this was a tragic event, it is extremely rare for the thunderstorm or tornado itself to kill a storm chaser.  Most serious injuries and/or deaths of chasers in the past have been the result of a car accident, completely unrelated to the situation at hand.

The "media frenzy" surrounding tornado and severe weather events in recent years also brings this issue to the forefront, and it will be interesting to see how this plays out in the longer term.

To summarize, my thoughts are:  Ban or regulate storm chasing?  No.  Encourage responsibility, common sense and the utmost caution, including (and in some cases, especially) among members of the media?  Yes.

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The Tornado Chronicles: Moore, OK Tornado of 5-20-13...

As you know by now, a devastating tornado struck the Moore, OK area late during the afternoon hours of May 20, 2013.  This is the same community that was hit hard by violent tornadoes back in 1999 and again in 2003.



Here are some videos of the tornado that have emerged on YouTube:

The next one is definitely from the "do not try this at home" department, but is very revealing as to the power of this tornado:

Notice how the videographer jumped back into his/her vehicle toward the end?  Not a good idea.  Just ask the owner of this truck (one of countless photos of completely destroyed vehicles):

There is one video that I cannot embed, but you can go to this link and view it.  It shows a family shooting video out of the top of their storm shelter as the tornado passed very close by in Moore.  Once again, I must interject that it is not a good idea to do this.  The shelter door should have been closed, as debris could have easily fallen inside, hurting or even killing someone.




Incoming images of the damage are devastating - and remind me of the destruction that I witnessed first hand when surveying the EF-5 damage in Joplin, MO:

As of this writing, 51 people are reported dead, 20 of which are said to be children.  Unfortunately, based on the degree of damage and the number of people reported as missing, those numbers will probably climb.  Our thoughts and prayers are certainly with the folks in this region.  



As a professional meteorologist charged with warning people in the path of severe weather, I am heartbroken at the death toll here, particularly among the elementary aged children that took shelter the only way they knew how - crouched down in the hallways of their schools.  The unfortunate truth is that in an EF-4 or EF-5 tornado situation, unless you are underground, there is no sure guarantee of survival.



The following YouTube video is an excellent illustration of the above statement.  Just watch as this man emerges from his family's storm shelter to find that everything above them had been wiped completely away:

No doubt, his family would have perished, or would have been seriously injured, had they not been in a below ground shelter.



I can't get over how similar the scene looks to when I stepped out of the car in Joplin, MO 3 years ago.  This video captures it quite well:

EF-4 damage is widespread, and I believe that evidence of EF-5 damage also exists.  **Update:  as of late afternoon 5/21/13, the National Weather Service survey team has rated the tornado EF-5 intensity.



Below is a map that shows the preliminary track of 5-20-13 compared to the last two major tornadoes in the same area:

Google has also released a street level map and current satellite view of the hardest hit area.  First, a wide shot showing the overall track map with the satellite view embedded over Moore (click on map to enlarge):

...and then a tight zoom on that satellite view.  Note the damage swath (brown swath of dirt vs. the more lush, green surrounding area):

On each image, the colored triangles note the corresponding EF-intensity damage in that area (blue, green, yellow, gold, red, purple represents EF-0 through EF-5 damage, respectively).



If we take an even closer look at the satellite view around the Briarwood Elementary School (where the EF-5 damage took place), you can see very clear evidence that the tornado was "multiple-vortex" at that stage, and that it produced several "suction vortices" (click to enlarge):

I have highlighted some of the more obvious multiple vortex tracks in yellow on the same image below, and circled some of the more obvious suction vortex marks in white (click to enlarge):

Multiple vortex, as the name implies, indicates that there was more than one circulation (often called "mini-tornadoes") spinning around inside of the primary circulation.  A suction vortex is noted where the tornado "sucks up" a significant portion of the earth at that location.  Grass, even asphalt and concrete are usually removed, and the bark will be stripped off of trees nearby as well.



This is a fluid post.  If you have an interest in this event, please bookmark the post and check back for updates as more information becomes available throughout the next couple of days...

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The Tornado Chronicles: Granbury and Cleburne TX Tornadoes of 5-15-13...

Thus far, 16 tornadoes have been confirmed across North Texas during the late afternoon and evening hours of May 15, 2013 as several supercell storms produced multiple tornadoes and/or tornado families.  



The two strongest tornadoes took place just to the East of Granbury (in Hood County - as shown in the photo above) and in the Cleburne area (in Johnson County).



A preliminary track map for the Granbury area tornado is shown below.  the first map is a wide view, and the second is a tighter zoom on the track itself:

The tornado to the East of Granbury had a track length of 2.75 miles and the damage is preliminarily rated at EF-4 intensity, with maximum winds of 166-200 mph.  



The video below, posted to YouTube by "tsubasachan777" shows the tornado at about the time that the EF-3 to EF-4 intensity damage was being done.  WARNING: turn the volume way down - the wind is very loud as it blows across the open body of water in the foreground:

The damage from this tornado is extensive and very impressive.  Several frame built homes (not mobile or pre-manufactured homes) were wiped completely off of their foundations, which signifies high end EF-4 or low end EF-5 intensity damage (depending on how the home was originally secured to the foundation):

Numerous other homes were heavily damaged and/or completely destroyed in widespread EF-3 or EF-4 intensity damage:

A mapping of the Cleburne area tornado is not yet available (please check back to this post for updates).  The Cleburne area tornado track was 8.5 miles in length and the damage is preliminarily rated EF-3 intensity, with maximum winds of 140 mph.

At one point it is estimated that the tornado was as much as 1 mile wide, as suggested by this frightening video (as the huge tornado is illuminated by nearly continuous lightning) posted to YouTube by storm chasers Bill Ford and Mike Casey:

This is the same supercell storm that made a near "U-turn", first travelling to the South/Southeast and then turning back Northward toward the Cleburne area, producing one or more tornadoes all the while.

While it is not unsual for a severe thunderstorm to make a right or left turn over time, it is relatively rare for such a dramatic shift in direction to take place in such a short period of time as we saw near Cleburne on Wednesday evening.

Numerous homes were also heavily damaged or completely destroyed in the Cleburne area as well:

The aerial footage shot by KXAS TV is even more telling of the damage that took place in this region:

There has been some discussion since the event that it was "not forecast" or "under forecast."  While its true that the National Weather Service initially issued a Severe Thunderstorm Watch for the region on Wednesday afternoon, the watch was upgraded/converted to a Tornado Watch shortly before 6pm, roughly 60-90 minutes before the first of the stronger tornadoes started to develop.

The overall meteorological situation on Wednesday very much reminds me of the situation that we saw two years ago in the Joplin area.  The situation rapidly evolved during a relatively short period of time and became very favorable for intense tornado development over a relatively concentrated geographic area.  Unlike the situation shaping up for this weekend in the Plains, where tornadic development appears likely several days in advance, it is the type of events that took place on Wednesday night that we seek to learn more about in order to increase their longer range predictability in the future.

If you have an interest in the tornadoes that took place in the Granbury, Cleburne and North Texas areas on Wednesday, please bookmark this post and check back for updates that will be forthcoming over the next few days...as additional information is received.

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Tornado Chronicles: Shuqualak MS Tornado of 4-11-13...

A strong, long track tornado struck portions of east-central Mississippi and west-central Alabama during the afternoon hours of April 11, 2013.  The above photo was taken by Leonard Kingery near Prairie Point, MS.



Below is a video of the tornado from the same location as the still photo, as captured by Tony Sudduth (warning, some foul language at times):

In all, the tornado was on the ground for just over 68 miles and was rated EF-3 intensity by the National Weather Service (NWS) damage survey team.



The maximum winds associated with this tornado are estimated at 145 mph, as evidenced, at least in part, by the total collapse of this radio transmission tower located in Noxubee County, MS:

One person was killed and 9 others were injured in association with the tornado, which was as much as 3/4 of a mile wide at one point.  Please click the track image below to enlarge:

The tornado initially touched down about 3 miles Southwest of Damascus, MS at  approximately 11:31 a.m. CDT, and lifted 3 miles East/Northeast of Bigbee Valley, AL at approximately 12:48 pm CDT.

The tornado tracked through a relatively rural area, causing widespread damage to trees and power lines.  Several homes and businesses were also affected, especially near Shuqualak, MS:

If you  have an interest in this tornado event, please bookmark the post and check back for additional information, photos and videos as they become available.

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Coming April, 2013:  "The Tornado Chronicles" full website!

• Interactive tornado database back to 1950 (earlier years coming soon)

• Interactive radar with live warnings and street-level zoom

• Tornado safety, preparedness and education

• Daily tornado/severe weather outlook

• Photos, videos and more!

Please show your support and follow The Tornado Chronicles on twitter and on facebook for the latest updates on tornadoes and the upcoming website!

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