Severe Weather Threat Shifts Southward Into Texas / Lower MS Valley Today...

As expected, the threat of severe weather is shifting Southward today, including a large part of the most heavily populated portion of Texas, as indicated in red on the above image.  

While some severe threat may develop as early as this morning across far northern Texas, the bulk of the severe threat is forecast to develop and/or increase from mid to late afternoon in to this evening.

Below are radar simulations as forecast by the high resolution NAM computer 

model, valid at 1pm and 4pm CDT today, respectively:

While its important not to take the forecast storm positions literally, this does give you a good idea as to where the bulk of the activity will be located at their respective times.

My main concern for the DFW Metroplex area (other than the severe weather threat itself) is the timing, which will be coincident or very near school release times across the area.  

As we move forward into this evening, the threat of severe weather will progress Eastward and Southward, including the Austin/San Antonio corridor along I-35 by late evening.  Below are the forecast radar images valid at 7pm and 10pm CDT, respectively:

Very large hail, damaging winds and tornadoes will be possible with all severe storms across Texas today, as well as within much of the red shaded area on the severe weather outlook image at the top of the post.

One or two strong and/or long track tornadoes are possible, again primarily within the red shaded area on the outlook map at the top of the post.  This threat includes the cities of Dallas/Ft. Worth, Waco, Temple, Austin, Shreveport and Texarkana.

Elsewhere throughout the severe weather outlook areas for today, large hail and wind damage will be the primary threats, with a few isolated tornadoes possible.

Please pay close attention to the weather if you live, work or have travel plans within the severe weather threat areas for today.  Make sure to identify your best sheltering option, and listen for later updates and warnings.

As the severe weather threat for today is now moving into the heart of our primary client base for WeatherGuidance, I may not be able to post many updates later today.  If I do, it will most likely be on facebook and/or twitter, so please follow me there if you aren't already...

For more information from 'The Original Weather Blog', including shorter, more frequent posts during rapidly changing weather events, please be sure to follow me on facebook and twitter:

 

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Tornado Watches In Effect Until 10pm...

...for southeast Kansas, western Missouri and a large part of central and eastern Oklahoma.  The extreme Northwest corner of Texas, in the Wichtia Falls area, is also included:

Very large hail (baseball size or larger) will be distinct possibility with thunderstorms that form within this area this afternoon and evening.  Tornadoes are also likely with the most organized storms, and one or more strong and/or long track tornadoes are possible.

The watch areas include Wichita Falls, Oklahoma City, Tulsa, Joplin, Springfield, Kansas City (although the threat there will only be for the next couple of hours), and the Columbia/Jefferson City area.

Scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop near the Western edge of the watches during the next 1-2 hours, and move Northeast.  The activity will likely congeal into one or more lines or clusters of storms toward sunset, which could threaten locations to the East of the current watch areas late this evening and into early tonight.  Damaging wind gusts will be the primary threat by that time.

The most dangerous time today will be from 45-60 minutes after any storm develops and matures, through about an hour or so after sunset.  Similar to yesterday, we are likely to see one or more strong, long track tornadoes with these storms, before they begin consolidating into lines or clusters.  Keep a very close eye on the cells that become well organized and remain relatively isolated from the rest of the activity.

Please make sure that you have identified your best sheltering option at home, work, school or recreational locations and be ready to move there quickly if threatening weather is observed or a warning is issued.

For more information from 'The Original Weather Blog', including shorter, more frequent posts during rapidly changing weather events, please be sure to follow me on facebook and twitter:

 

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Significant Severe Weather Likely Again Today - Including Much of Oklahoma...

Severe weather is likely again today, unfortunately in much the same area as yesterday (especially with regard to Oklahoma and southwest Missouri).  

Some of the storms could produce very large hail and one or two strong and/or long track tornadoes are possible, especially within the reddish-orange shaded area on the above image.

The primary threat will exist from mid to late afternoon into this evening.

Please pay very close attention to the weather in these areas today...and check back here for a more detailed update around midday.

For more information from 'The Original Weather Blog', including shorter, more frequent posts during rapidly changing weather events, please be sure to follow me on facebook and twitter:

 

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Severe Weather About to Get Underway in the Plains...

Above are Tornado Watches that have gone into effect within the last hour.  Expiration times are noted in white inside of each watch box.  Very large hail and tornadoes are possible with any storm that forms in these areas, and strong and/or long track tornadoes are possible, especially in the Oklahoma and eastern Kansas watch areas.



Already, one storm is strengthening rapidly right out of the box, almost half way between Anthony and Wichita, KS.  

This storm bears watching and is moving in the general direction of Wichita.



I will post as many pertinent updates as I can this afternoon, but most likely on Facebook and/or Twitter rather than here on the blog (as I can get the word out much faster that way), so please follow me there if you haven't already...and most of all, stay safe!

For more information from 'The Original Weather Blog', including shorter, more frequent posts during rapidly changing weather events, please be sure to follow me on facebook and twitter:

 

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The Tornado Chronicles: Rozel, KS Tornado of 5-18-13...

One of the most picturesque tornadoes that took place yesterday was near Rozel, KS, a tiny farm community in the west-central part of the state.  The photo above was taken by Shalyn Phillips, and is one of the best "stovepipe" tornado photos that I've seen in a long time.

There are also a couple of impressive videos of the Rozel tornado that have emerged on YouTube.  Caution: I  have not 100% vetted these for language, but I think they're pretty safe:

The "nice" thing about yesterday's activity, with respect to tornadoes, is that it largely took place in extremely rural areas, with less than 1 home per square mile in most cases (sometimes 0 per square mile).  I have not heard of any confirmed injuries or deaths, which is always a plus.

"Back in the day" when I would chase on a regular basis, I always much preferred to photograph or videotape a huge tornado out in the "middle of nowhere" vs. in a populated area, and I know most chasers today feel the same (if not, they should be ashamed of themselves).

Unfortunately, the tornado risk today, some of which is significant, has shifted Eastward into a much more heavily populated area (in excess of 7,000,000 within the highest tornado threat area).  You can see my earlier post for details.

Please be sure to pay attention to the weather in the Plains and Midwest today and again on Monday.  We'd love to see your photos and videos, but only from a safe distance and with no threat to your life.

If you have an interest in the Rozel, KS area tornadoes of 5-18-13, please bookmark this post and check back for forthcoming updates...

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Significant Severe Weather Threat Continues Today & Monday...

Nothing has really changed since my detailed post yesterday morning.  Severe storms, including tornadoes and very large hail, are likely again today and Monday, primarily during the mid to late afternoon and evening to early nighttime hours each day.



Some of the severe weather events will be significant, and with the threat progressing Eastward into a much more heavily populated region, there could be several major impacts that take place today and Monday.



Here is the latest severe weather outlook for today:

...and for Monday:

...both of which are largely unchanged from yesterday's forecast for the same dates.

It still appears quite likely that one or more significant tornadoes (i.e., strong to violent and/or long track) will take place this afternoon and/or evening, especially within the reddish-orange shaded area on today's outlook.  This threat includes the cities of Oklahoma City, Tulsa, Joplin, Springfield, Wichita, Kansas City, Des Moines and Omaha.

In addition to the tornado threat, very large hail can be expected in this region, likely baseball size or larger in the strongest storms.  Damaging thunderstorm winds are also possible.

If you live in the severe weather threat areas for this afternoon and evening, please keep in mind that this is particularly dangerous situation.  Stay alert and make sure that you have (1). a way to receive weather warnings and (2). a pre-designated shelter or other safe place to go.

If you are attending a graduation or other public ceremony today, please be sure to identify the nearest shelter or safe area as you enter the location.  Many public venues in this part of the country display a sign or other symbol so as to direct you to the best location, like in these examples:

Please be sure to identify this safe area as you first arrive to the location, because if something unfortunate happens while you're there, it could become quite chaotic at that time.  There's no need to panic, and you won't have to if you already have a plan in place before there is any potential for bad weather.

Stay tuned for updates as the afternoon progresses.

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Severe Weather Update for Kansas/Oklahoma/Texas for Today...

Above is the latest analysis of CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) across the primary severe weather threat area for today.  CAPE is a measure of how unstable the atmosphere is, and the values in excess of 5,000 across Oklahoma and southwest Kansas are extreme by any measure.

A surface low pressure area is strengthening over the central Oklahoma panhandle area, with a dryling trailing off to the South and a warm front arching to the East then Southeast across central Oklahoma.

The winds are out of the East to Southeast along and immediately to either side of the warm front, which will provide favorable turning in the atmosphere to cause storms to rotate later this afternoon and evening.

Storms will likely initially form along and ahead of the dryline by late afternoon, and also along and North of the warm frontal boundary.

The latest run of the high resolution NAM model generally agrees with that scenario, as shown on the simulated radar forecast images valid at 4pm, 5pm, 6pm and 7pm today, respectively:

Tornadoes, very large hail and damaging winds will be possible with severe storms in this region today, with the highest risk located within the red and orangish-red shaded areas on the image below (which is unchanged from my earlier outlook):

Please stay weather aware in these areas - and be prepared to move to shelter quickly if threatening conditions are observed or a warning is issued.

As I mentioned in my post earlier today, graduation ceremonies and other events are abundant across the region this afternoon and evening.  If you are heading out to a public place, be sure to note your best sheltering option while entering the venue, just in case.  Many public places have signs like these to help direct you to a safe place, but be sure to identify them ahead of time, not in the heat of the moment when you're likely to be distracted:

For more information from 'The Original Weather Blog', including shorter, more frequent posts during rapidly changing weather events, please be sure to follow me on facebook and twitter:

 

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