Tornado Strikes the Algarve Region of Portugal...

A tornado which apparently began as a waterspout struck the Algarve region of southern Portgual around 1pm local time today.  Reports so far indicate that at least 10 people were injured, 2 of them seriously.  Most of the injured were trapped under overturned vehicles.



A couple of videos have recently emerged on YouTube and show a large water spout moving toward the coastline:

Once it came ashore, quite a bit of damage took place in the municipalities of Lagoa and Silves.  Here's another video, this one from the "don't try this at home" department:

Cars were tossed around like toys, trees were uprooted, and some structural damage took place, especially to windows and roofs:

photo via iOnline

photo via iOnline

photo via iOnline

photo via The Portugal News

photo via iOnline

A roof was reportedly "torn off" of a school in the community of Alvor, but there are no immediate reports of serious injuries at that location.

Algarve Region at the Red "A" Balloon

According to a study performed in 2003, approximately 30 tornadoes were observed in Portugal over the 66 year period from 1936 to 2002.  Researchers point out that due to the relatively concentrated population centers in the region, it is quite likely that others have taken place but were simply not observed and entered into the record.

The strongest tornado on record for Portugal took place on November 6, 1954.   That tornado struck the Castelo Branco region where 4 people were killed and over 200 were injured.

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NWS "Postpones" Its Assessment of Hurricane Sandy: Politics, Red Tape or All of the Above?

The weather faction of the social media world went abuzz today when it was announced that the team charged with examining the National Weather Service's (NWS) performance during Hurricane Sandy was told that the project was "terminated, effective immediately..."



In a post on his blog, Mike Smith (the co-chair of the team) said that he received an e-mail from NWS Headquarters this morning stating that the assessment team had been terminated "effective immediately":

Smith went on to say that the e-mail suggested that a "larger, multi-agency review of this event may take place...", however no details were immediately provided.



I sent an e-mail to NOAA Public Affairs, seeking an "official statement" and/or news release concerning the situation, and received the following reply:

The NWS's reply naturally begged a follow-up question regarding the expected timeline and what agencies would be involved in a "broader federal assessment of the government's preparation and response to Sandy", to which I received this reply: 

I find it very hard to believe that a "multi-agency" assessment of the handling of Sandy by the federal government would be complete in as little as 6 months - especially when they haven't even decided who will be participating in that assessment.

For the record and before I go further, the original subject line of my e-mails to the NWS read "Hurricane Sandy Assessment Team", as shown below:

Referring back to the replies from the NWS, you can see that they deleted the reference to "hurricane" and retyped the subject line as simply "Sandy assessment".  Why that may be important will be addressed shortly...

So, what's the big deal with the assessment being cancelled, (or postponed as indicated in the NWS's 2nd response) you ask?  Well, there are several issues at play here, many of which revolve around politics, I believe.

Myself and several others in the meteorological community believe that a significant portion of the Hurricane Sandy event was mishandled insofar as the technical classification and resulting weather warnings (or lack thereof) were concerned leading up to the landfall of the system.

Over the weekend prior to Sandy's landfall, the NWS's National Hurricane Center (NHC) stated that Hurricane and/or Tropical Storm Warnings would not be extended Northward along the U.S. coast beyond North Carolina because of their belief that Sandy would become "extra-tropical" (in other words, not a warm core, tropical system) before making landfall.  As a result of that decision, they passed the responsibility of issuing watch and warning products (of a non-tropical nature) to the local NWS offices in the path of the system.

I have maintained all along that this was a tragic mistake.  I firmly believe that this decision is what lead, at least in part, to New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg waiting too long to order an evacuation of the areas at greatest risk.  In a press conference held on the Saturday (2 days) before the storm hit, the mayor practically blew-off the situation, saying, in part, that it would not be as bad as Irene was last year and that folks should go on about their business as they normally would:

Like it or not, we live in an always on, always connected society.  When a highly visible public official makes a dangerously uninformed statement such as the one in the video above (regardless of the original source or reasoning), the results can be devastating, and I believe that is exactly what took place in the case of Sandy.

Some in the meteorological community contend that arguing whether or not Sandy was a hurricane as it approached and made landfall is purely a futile exhibition of "semantics".  I disagree.  First, I am of the opinion that Sandy was a warm core, tropical system (and specifically, a hurricane) as the center approached the New Jersey coast.  Second, whether we like it or not, psychology and, yes, semantics, play an extremely important role insofar as how seriously the "public at large" will react to an approaching severe weather situation.  

Instead of having Hurricane Warnings in place along the coast well in advance for the impacted areas, we were given the relatively sporadic issuance of a combination of high wind watches or warnings and coastal flood watches or warnings, among a myriad of other advisory products.  To add further complexity to the situation, instead of having one national center (like the NHC) issuing the advisories, we were sprung into a situation where numerous local offices were expected to coordinate the effort, which is impractical to say the least in a situation such as this.

Flooded Underpass in Battery Park (The Atlantic)

Make no mistake, I'm not saying that Sandy was "unexpected" or poorly forecast (although some outlets did call for the system to move out to sea and away from the area for several days before they finally reversed course).   In general, this was a well forecast event.  This very blog started talking about the likely impact of this system on the Northeast over 1 week in advance of its impact.  With that said, in my opinion, the fact that a formal Hurricane Warning was never issued for the coasts of New York or New Jersey resulted in some people taking the situation less seriously and failing to act as they otherwise might have.

Ambulances line up at NYU Medical Center

to Remove Patients After Power Failed (AP)

All of this brings us back to the sudden cancellation or "postponement" of the NWS's service assessment today.  Are there folks in the local, state and even the federal government that are afraid of what the full truth of this matter may reveal?  Sure there are.  After all, re-elections are at stake here.  Is that the reason that the assessment was "terminated" (or postponed as it was described in the 2nd e-mail reply that I received today), or is this just another example of government red tape run amok?  We may never know, but we're certainly entitled to our opinion on the matter.

Will we ever have an objective assessment of the handling of Hurricane Sandy presented for review?  I honestly don't know.  I do, however, believe that a lot more people will pay a lot more attention to the next tropical system to affect this area next year and in the years to come.  Its just unfortunate that this lesson had to come at such an extremely high cost - and I'm not just talking dollars - I'm talking about the lives that were forever lost and those that were (and continue to be) severely disrupted.

They deserve better next time.

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Areas Hardest Hit By Sandy to be Spared Worst of Next Week's Storm...

I could have also entitled this post "saved by the High..." but decided to go with one that would perhaps be appreciated more immediately...



Over the last couple of days, computer forecast models have been trending further South and East with the track of the area of low pressure forecast to develop off the U.S. East Coast next week.  Initially the trends were too subtle to have any real impact, but the last 2 runs of both the U.S. and European based models are in significant agreement that the bulk of the higher wave, wind and water action will take place to the immediate South of the area hit hardest by Hurricane Sandy.



The image below is the latest U.S. based GFS forecast model valid 7am EST on Monday morning:

As you can see, it shows the center of the developing low near Bermuda, being suppressed further South by a sprawling area of high pressure over the Canadian Maritimes.  While strong Easterly winds will still impact the U.S. East coast in this scenario, it now appears as though the bulk of the stronger wind and wave action will take place further to the South, mainly from the Delmarva peninsula on Southward toward the outer banks of North Carolina.

The WW3 computer wave model forecast calls for the highest waves and swells to take place from the Delmarva Peninsula, Southward along the Carolina coasts as well.  This image is also valid at 7am EST on Monday:

Higher than normal surf can still be expected along especially the southern Jersey coast late Sunday into early Tuesday, but at this time it appears that the more problematic conditions will take place further to the South.  While we certainly don't wish bad conditions on our friends down that way, at least their sand dunes and barrier islands are in far better shape to handle such conditions after having been impacted far less by Hurricane Sandy than the folks further North.

This is also good news in that crews along the Jersey and New York coasts will have time to continue working to replace sea barriers before the next storm system impacts the region.  I don't mean to make this sound like it's an easy project that can be completed in a matter of days or weeks, because it can't.  With that said, any amount of progress that can be made will be critical in protecting the region from future storms this winter and into the spring.

A natural question then becomes, when is the next significant storm system likely to impact the region?  While nothing is set in stone for sure at this point, longer term models are hinting toward unsettled conditions developing in the region again toward the tail end of this month, specifically centered around the period of the 28th-30th.  There are also increasing signs that a shot of cold, arctic air will invade the region around that time as well.  With that in mind, I certainly hope that power and gas will be restored to as many folks as possible before that time.

For more information from 'The Original Weather Blog', including shorter, more frequent posts during rapidly changing weather events, please be sure to follow Rob on facebook and twitter:

 

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Another Storm Targeting Battle Weary NJ/NY Coasts Next Week...

I don't like the trends that I'm seeing in both the European and U.S. based computer forecast models for next week across the region hit so very hard by Hurricane Sandy.



Before I go on, I should point out that it's not that I'm concerned because of precipitation potential, but what will continue to be a major problem across the region with almost every storm this winter (and even into the spring of 2013): winds, waves and storm surge.



As I've pointed out in recent posts, many (if not all) of the barrier islands, sand dunes and other natural barriers that protect the population along the coast were washed away by Hurricane Sandy.  Take this example (regular readers are probably tired of seeing the photo, but it illustrates the situation perfectly) along the Jersey coast to the East of Brick:  

On the left, you can see the barrier island as it was before Sandy struck.  On the right, you can see that a large chunk was literally washed away.  Similar situations are in place all along the coastline from New Jersey through Long Island, and this creates the perfect set up for continued problems from Easterly winds, high waves and storm surges for many months to come.



Now, on to the lowdown on next week.  Below are images from the European and U.S. GFS based computer forecast models, respectively.  Both are valid at 7am EST on Sunday morning,  November 18th:

As you can see, a developing area of low pressure is forecast by both models to be taking shape off of the Carolina coasts.  Easterly surface winds of 20-30 mph are already forecast to be battering the coastline from the Delmarva Peninsula through the Jersey shore and Long Island.  This is not good, as higher than normal tidal water levels impact the region along with the strong and gusty Easterly surface winds.

High wave action will be underway along the coast on Sunday as well, with the WW3 Wave Model forecasting 10-14 foot waves just offshore along the Delmarva peninsula at 7am EST on Sunday morning:

The strong Easterly winds will continue, and increase in speed, through Monday and Tuesday, continuing to batter the coastline in an area that certainly doesn't need it.  Here is what the wave model looks like at 7am EST on Monday:

...and at 7am EST on Tuesday:

The red shaded areas on each image represent 14-22 foot waves just offshore along the Delmarva, Jersey and New York coasts, and serve as a discouraging reminder of the amount of water that will continue to be pushed up along the coast in these already hard hit areas.

Surface wind gusts will likely increase out of the East into the 30-40 mph range during this time period as well, adding further insult to injury across the region.

By now you've probably put the pieces of the puzzle together:  36-48 hours of a nearly continuous pounding of the area by strong, gusty East surface winds, higher than normal tidal waters and high wave action.  A less than ideal scenario in any situation, much less across this already hard hit region.

Hopefully officials across the region are paying attention to this developing situation and will take whatever measures they can to mitigate the loss of natural water barriers before this storm arrives.  Unfortunately, the folks in this region will be dealing with similar situations with nearly every storm to come this winter, and quite possibly into the spring of next year as well.

We will continue to monitor this developing situation with additional updates forthcoming...

For more information from 'The Original Weather Blog', including shorter, more frequent posts during rapidly changing weather events, please be sure to follow Rob on facebook and twitter:

 

If you are in need of highly customized, site specific weather forecasts and/or storm warnings for your business, school or event, be sure visit my professional webpage at WeatherGuidance.com.

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Historic Flooding In Venice, Italy...

A strong, nearly stationary low pressure system to the West of Italy continues to result in strong Easterly winds over the Adriatic Sea, causing the waters to flood (literally) into Venice.  The above photo of the Piazza San Marco was taken yesterday (via twitter, unknown photographer).  Here is what the historic tourist site normally looks like:

Similar images abound across the region from the last few days:

While flooding due to heavy rain, storm surge and tidal fluctuations is not necessarily usual in this area at this time of the year (the locals call it "acqua alta" or "high water"), water levels do not typically get this high.

Shops and other landmarks are struggling to keep the water "at bay" any way they can...

Some have been met with more success (above) than others (below):

For more information from 'The Original Weather Blog', including shorter, more frequent posts during rapidly changing weather events, please be sure to follow Rob on facebook and twitter:

 

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Thank You, Veterans!

To all those who proudly serve our great country - past, present and future - as well as their families...

Happy Veteran's Day!

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Severe Weather Threat Southern Plains / MS Valley Today...

Above is the latest visible satellite image with an overlay of radar data.  A broad area of showers and embedded thunderstorms continues along and immediately behind a strong cold front (blue line) across eastern Oklahoma and Kansas into western Missouri this morning.  This area of precipitation has produced widespread 1-2 inch rains overnight and this morning, but is not producing severe weather.

The cold front, which stretches back into southwest Texas, will continue moving toward the East and Southeast today.  Warm, moist air is flowing Northward from the Gulf of Mexico ahead of the front (as represented by the yellow arrows), and will set the stage for strong to severe thunderstorm development across the region later this afternoon and into this evening.

Below is the latest severe weather outlook for later today and tonight from the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) in Norman, OK:

While strong to severe thunderstorms are possible anywhere within the brown shaded area on the image, the highest chance of severe storms will take place within the yellow and red shaded area.  This includes the cities of Dallas, Tyler, Texarkana, Shreveport, Little Rock and Ft. Smith.

Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to develop along the cold front by mid to late afternoon, and progress Eastward during the evening hours.  Large hail and damaging wind gusts will be the primary threats, although a few isolated tornadoes also cannot be ruled out, especially within the brown shaded area on the image below:

The greater Dallas area will be on the Western edge of the greatest chance of strong to severe storms.  If storms are not able to develop along the front before it passes through Dallas by mid-afternoon, then this threat will not be realized.  A greater threat is expected as the front moves further to the East of I-35 toward the ArkLaTex region, as indicated by the red shaded area 2 images above.

Further South along I-35, a "conditional" risk of strong to severe thunderstorms will exist along the front as far South as about the Austin metro area.  I say that the risk is conditional in this region because in order for it to be realized, thunderstorms must first be able to develop.  While the atmosphere will be plenty unstable to support thunderstorm development in this region, it will be more difficult for them to form because of a strong capping inversion that is present overhead.



Any thunderstorms that are able to break through the cap and form in the Austin-San Antonio corridor could become severe with hail and wind gusts to near severe limits the greatest threat, along with lightning strikes.  The most likely time for this to occur appears to be during the hours of 3pm to 6pm today.



Beneficial rains will fall ahead of the front across the Mississippi Valley region into tonight, with widespread 1-3 inch rainfall totals likely:

If you live in the severe weather threat areas for today, remain alert, especially this afternoon and evening.  Listen to NOAA Weather Radio, local media or another trusted source for the latest information and possible warnings.  Be sure to identify the best sheltering location wherever you'll be (especially if you are in an unfamiliar location), that way you can move there quickly if threatening weather is observed or a warning is issued.

Please also note, especially with the earlier sunset now in Standard Time, much of the severe weather threat will take place after dark, especially over the ArkLaTex region and into the lower Mississippi Valley.  This can be especially dangerous, so please pay attention to the weather if you live or have travel plans in these areas.

For more information from 'The Original Weather Blog', including shorter, more frequent posts during rapidly changing weather events, please be sure to follow Rob on facebook and twitter:

 

If you are in need of highly customized, site specific weather forecasts and/or storm warnings for your business, school or event, be sure visit my professional webpage at WeatherGuidance.com.

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