Are You Dreaming of a White Christmas for 2012?

Thanks to a relatively warm and dry fall across a good part of the country, many are convinced that scenes like the one above will be hard to come by this winter...

To that I say, fear not, winter weather and snow lovers:  a major pattern change appears to be shaping up for mid through late December which will likely put down a snow field across a good chunk of the nation - perhaps just in time for many to have that much sought after White Christmas.

December will start out warmer than normal across a good portion of the nation, as indicated by the latest 6-10 day departure from normal temperature forecast from the CPC shown below (valid December 5th-9th):

Meanwhile, bitterly cold air will continue to build up across Alaska and Canada.  Temperatures across much of this region are currently sub-zero, with a large pocket of minus teens and minus 20s in western Canada and eastern Alaska:  

This bitterly cold air will continue to accumulate through the 2nd week of December, before the weight of the airmass combined with increasing jet stream energy from the West begins to break it loose and send it Southeastward into the U.S. in one or more waves.  This will likely result in below normal temperatures across much of the central and eastern two thirds of the country by the 2nd half of the month, similar to the area shown in blue and green on the departure from normal temperature forecast below:

As a result of the cold air intrusion(s) and increasing middle and upper-level energy, the chance of measurable snow will increase across a large portion of the country from North to South beginning around mid-December and continuing through the end of the month, including Christmas time.

The 4 panel image below shows the forecast snow depth from 4 different long range computer forecast models.  Each model forecast is valid for the 5 day period leading up to Christmas (December 20th-25th):

As you can see, 2 of the four computer model solutions suggest that measurable snow could reach as far South as northern Texas by that time period (bottom of the image).  The other 2 forecast the measurable snow to remain in the more "traditional" areas of the central and northern Plains and Midwest into the Northeast (top of the image).  

This is just meant to give an early "heads-up" for everybody, as we still have a lot of time to watch this and things can certainly change, but I don't want winter weather and snow lovers to give up on the prospects of a more active 2nd half of December (which is really when Winter officially starts anyway), which may also lead to a White Christmas for a good chunk of the nation.

So, without further ado, please cue Mr. Bing Crosby...

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2012 Atlantic Tropical Storm & Hurricane Season Wraps Up...

Today being the last day of November also "officially" marks the final day of the 2012 Atlantic Hurricane Season.  The above video from NOAA shows the progression of the entire season (which began on June 1) in just 4.5 minutes time.  Note:  the video is best viewed in HD mode.

As far as averages and records are concerned, the 2012 season was more active than usual, and came in as a tie for the 3rd most active since records have been kept in 1871, with 19 named storms.  There are typically 12 named storms in an "average" season.

Of the 19 named storms this season, 10 became hurricanes and 1 (Michael - the "fish storm" that never affected land) became a "major" hurricane.

Here in the U.S., the event that most folks will remember is Hurricane Sandy which ravaged an area from the Caribbean to New England during the next to the last month of the season.

Hurricane Isaac is also a memorable event from this season, taking a very "Katrina-like" track through the Gulf Coast back in late August.

Both of these systems illustrated the continued vulnerability of our communities along the Gulf and Atlantic coasts.  Regardless as to whether or not a hurricane is classified as "major" (which is primarily based on wind speed), the effects of storm surge as well as salt and fresh water flooding often have a devastating impact.

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Assessment of Hurricane Sandy Performance Back On - But With ZERO Independence...

According to a recent post on the Capital Weather Gang's blog, NOAA announced this afternoon that the assessment of how the National Weather Service (NWS) performed during the Hurricane Sandy event is back on, after being abruptly cancelled on November 15th.   Here is an excerpt of NOAA's statement from the blog post:

One of the most promising aspects of the original service assessment team was that for the first time it would have heavily involved members of the private sector as well as social scientists and other experts - not just members of the same government agencies that were responsible for issuing watches and warnings during the event.



I call your attention to the last line of today's statement, which suggests that non-government participation will be sorely lacking in the new assessment:

How unfortunate.

To be clear, I was in no way involved with the assembly of the original assessment team (I have received e-mail inquiries regarding that possibility based on my response to the suspension of the original group).  As a result, I harbor no "sour grapes" as to whether or not outside or private sector individuals should be involved in the process.

My frustration comes from being a meteorologist concerned with how public and commercial concerns react to an impending severe weather threat such as Sandy, and improving future forecast and warning products based on past experiences (including mistakes, which I clearly believe were made in this particular case).  Until we involve key members of the media, emergency management, social media experts, social scientists and private sector individuals in the assessment of these major events, I feel that we will potentially continue to let the public and other end users down in these situations.

Putting my concerns aside, NOAA's decision to proceed with the assessment without the involvement of individuals from outside of the government appears to show a lack of concern with point 6 of U.S. Rep. Paul Broun's letter to the Administrator of the agency, issued on November 20th:

It certainly appears that Rep. Broun was concerned that the new assessment team would remain "independent", as was promised by the assembly of the first team.  Unfortunately, it appears as though that won't be the case this time around.

I wonder what kind of response we can expect from Rep. Broun and his committee?  Will they accept NOAA's actions or demand that some level of independence be restored to the "official" examination of this historic weather event?

For now anyway, it appears as though the fox will continue to guard the hen house when it comes to reviewing government performance during extreme weather events in the U.S.

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Major Storm Pounds the West Coast - and Will Continue thru the Weekend...

A strong storm system is pounding the central and northern Pacific coast of the U.S. and adjacent portions of southwest Canada today.  Heavy rain and mountain snow are being buffeted by 30-40 mph sustained winds and gusts in excess of 60 mph, creating extremely hazardous conditions.

In California, the heaviest rains are currently falling from San Francisco, Northward to near Redding and Eureka:

Rainfall amounts through Friday will average 3-6 inches across the region, with amounts in excess of 6-8 inches possible in some areas:

Unfortunately, this is only the first installment in a series of systems that will continue to produce widespread precipitation through the weekend, with rainfall amounts in excess of 12 inches likely in many areas:

Snow levels across the Sierra-Nevada range are currently 7,000-7,500 feet or greater, with very heavy snows likely to continue in the higher elevations.

In the wind and wave department, conditions are already bad and are about to become worse.  The chart below shows peak wind gusts (as gathered by the National Weather Service (NWS) in San Francisco) so far today:

Wave heights offshore along the central and northern California coast are averaging about 15 feet, and rising.  The following graph shows increasing wave heights at Point Reyes, CA, off of the coast West of San Francisco, with recent values just under 15 feet:

Wave heights will likely exceed 20 feet at times, especially during periods of stronger onshore winds.  High surf and flood watches and/or warnings are in effect across the region, as shown in purple on the image below:

Low level winds are forecast to become particularly strong along the northern California and southern Oregon coasts later tonight and on Thursday, with the high resolution NAM computer model forecasting widespread winds in excess of 70 mph (darker orange and red shaded areas on the image below):

We'll continue to monitor this situation with additional updates forthcoming over the next few days...

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Large Tornado In Taranto, Italy on 11-28-12...

Joplin?  Tuscaloosa?  Oklahoma?  No, the screen capture above shows a large, "wedge" tornado tearing through the industrial port of Taranto, Italy at around 11:30 AM local time on November 28, 2012.


A very impressive YouTube video has surfaced and is shown below.  Note the multiple vortex structure of the tornado at several points, especially around 1 minute into the video.  You can also see transformer power flashes from time to time:

I'm sure Google's Italian to English translator doesn't do it justice, but the videographer is quoted as saying "A thing of this kind I do not I have ever seen..." in the description of the video.

Here is an up close view of the tornado (don't try this at home).  Again, note the violent motion associated with the multiple vortex structure of the tornado:

Additional videos are shown at this link.



Taranto is located on the Mediterranean Sea on the Southeast tip of the country:

Initial media reports indicated 3 deaths and 20 injuries due to the tornado.  Recent reports have removed the reference to any deaths, although 1 person is reported "missing" when a crane he was operating was "swept into the sea".  Recent reports of injuries have risen to "40 plus".



Damage was reportedly caused to a primary school where 5-10 children were injured, but not seriously according to reports.  Major damage was reported at the ILVA steel mill, which is one of the largest steel manufacturers in western Europe.  That is also believed to be the location where the crane operator was reported missing.



Some damage photos and videos are also beginning to emerge.  This one was recently posted on YouTube and shows extensive damage to what appear to be heavy, masonry constructed buildings:

Tornadoes are not uncommon in this region, however I have never seen one this large documented on video (or photos, for that matter).  This is likely due, in part, to the recent onslaught of digital media where almost everyone is now carrying around a digital camera and/or video camera in their pocket.  There were several instances of tornadoes with significant damage in Italy prior to the 1970s, but no known photographs of the parent tornadoes exist in most cases.



Taking a quick look at the history of recent Italian tornadoes, the last "significant" event appears to have taken place back in September of 1970, near Venice.  That event caused 36 deaths and "significant" damage across the region.



In more recent times, tornadoes have struck in the region of Veneto, Italy (largest city and capital is Venice) on both July 23, 2010 and June 12, 2012.  The former tornado caused 1 fatality.  The latter did not result in any deaths, but was estimated at "F2" intensity based on damage.  A photo of the June 12, 2012 tornado is shown below (unknown photographer, from this report in Italian): 

If you have interest in this event, please bookmark this post and check back for updates as I will be gathering additional information throughout the coming days.

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Comparing the Impacts of Hurricane Sandy to Hurricane Katrina...

Lately I've been hearing lots of folks talk about whether or not Sandy had a greater "impact" than Katrina.  If we look solely at the human toll (with regard to the loss of life), I don't think anyone can argue against the fact that Katrina was far worse than Sandy.  

With that said, and certainly with all due respect and condolences to those who lost friends, loved ones and family members in both events, if we take a look at the "bigger picture" across several types of impacts, Sandy starts to jump right up there in comparison - and not all of the numbers are in yet, either.

A blog post in today's New York Times "City Room" took a look at some of the other major impacts associated with both events:

You can read the full post on the Times blog for more details, as well as the ability to drill down for more information on each of the hyperlinks in the table shown above.

Naturally, with the extremely dense population that was directly impacted by Sandy compared to that of Katrina, the economic and other social impacts were tremendous, and likely unprecedented in modern history.  I noted that the New York Times did not include any reference to the transportation infrastructure (i.e., subways, tunnels, etc.) in their comparison, and that aspect alone puts several notches in Sandy's belt compared to Katrina, especially given the tremendous impact due to the higher population. 

As they point out in the article, this is a highly preliminary look at the situation (with respect to Sandy), as several statistics are still being calculated, and will be for months to come.  

For the record, I strongly disagree with point 1 on the table.  I have been presented with zero compelling evidence (other than unsubstantiated claims from the National Weather Service) that Sandy was "post-tropical" (i.e., not a hurricane) at landfall.

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Band of Snow Spreading Across the Northeast Today...

Snow is falling moderately to heavily at times across central Pennsylvania this morning.  As you can see on the composite radar image above, the rain/snow line is currently just to the Northwest of both Philly and NYC.  Rain will likely mix with snow at times in those areas both this morning and then again late this afternoon or this evening, however significant accumulations are not expected in these areas.

At this time, it appears that the most significant accumulations will take place where we are currently seeing the band of moderate to locally heavy snow, from southcentral into northeast Pennsylvania:

All of the widespread rain and snow is causing quite a few travel delays across the region, so be sure to check ahead and allow extra time if you have plans to move across this area today by ground or air.

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Strong to Severe Storms Possible Southern Texas to Louisiana Later Today...

Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible later today from southcentral and southeast Texas into Louisiana.  The highest potential for severe storms will exist within the yellow shaded area on the image above.

A cold front is forecast to move Southeast into the region later today, while a disturbance in the middle and upper-atmosphere moves East into the region from Mexico.  The two elements will combine to produce scattered shower and thunderstorm activity, as depicted by the computer forecast model radar image below valid at 6pm CST this evening:

I wouldn't necessarily take the forecast positions of the storms literally, however the model gives you a good idea as to the most likely areas for thunderstorm formation by that time.

While hail and gusty winds near severe limits are expected to be the primary threats today, an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out over a relatively concentrated area generally centered on the ArkLaTex region, as indicated by the green shaded area on the image below:

If you live across this region, please remain alert this afternoon and evening.  Listen to NOAA Weather Radio or a trusted local source for the latest information and possible warnings.  Since it's been awhile since severe weather has threatened this region, it might be a good idea to review your severe weather safety plan and identify your best sheltering option at home, work or school.

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From Our Family to Yours...

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Foggy Start to Thanksgiving Travel Across the Midwest

Dense fog is widespread across the Midwest and Great Lakes region this morning.  The grey and red squares on the above surface map show where airports are reporting visibility less than 1/2 mile in many cases.



Unfortunately, this has lead to quite a bottleneck at Chicago and St. Louis area airports this morning, which has a domino affect on other major hubs.  Hundreds of flights have been delayed and/or cancelled.  If you have travel plans across the region, it would be a very good idea to call ahead or check online to make sure that your flight is on time before heading out to the airport today.



Other than the fog in the Midwest, travel weather conditions will be relatively quiet across the bulk of the country from the Rockies on to the East today.



Out West, unsettled conditions continue from the San Francisco Bay area on Northward into the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies as a series of strong, upper-level weather disturbances impact the region:

Showery and windy conditions will impact the lower elevations in this region, with heavy mountain snows possible.  Winter Weather Advisories are in effect today and/or tonight for the areas shaded in purple on the image below:

If you have travel plans across the affected regions of the West by road, it would be wise to allow extra time due to these conditions.  If you have flights that originate out of San Francisco or Seattle, I'd definitely check ahead to make sure that they are on time.

For more information from 'The Original Weather Blog', including shorter, more frequent posts during rapidly changing weather events, please be sure to follow Rob on facebook and twitter:

 

If you are in need of highly customized, site specific weather forecasts and/or storm warnings for your business, school or event, be sure visit my professional webpage at WeatherGuidance.com.

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U.S. Grand Prix at the Circuit of the Americas Today!

After over 2 years of design and construction, the Circuit of the Americas will hold its first race at High Noon today, when the U.S. Grand Prix gets underway here in Austin, TX.

Thousands of racers and spectators have been flooding into the Austin area for the last week, with attendance today expected to exceed 120,000.

The weather will be nearly perfect today with temperatures in the upper 60s to lower 70s at race time with relatively light East to Southeast winds.  Middle and high level clouds will be on the increase during the afternoon and this evening.

For more information from 'The Original Weather Blog', including shorter, more frequent posts during rapidly changing weather events, please be sure to follow Rob on facebook and twitter:

 

If you are in need of highly customized, site specific weather forecasts and/or storm warnings for your business, school or event, be sure visit my professional webpage at WeatherGuidance.com.

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