Computer model forecast data continues to come into better agreement that a significant episode of severe weather is likely on Tuesday afternoon and evening.
The latest severe weather outlook from the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) is shown below, valid Tuesday and Tuesday night:
Severe thunderstorms are possible anywhere within the brown, yellow and red shaded areas, with the highest potential forecast within the yellow and red shaded areas. This includes the DFW Metroplex region, Shreveport, Little Rock, Memphis, Paducah and St. Louis.
Thunderstorms are forecast to develop along and ahead of a sharpening cold front during the afternoon hours, near the western edge of the outlook area. The activity will then shift East and Northeast during the remainder of the afternoon and into the evening Tuesday.
I mentioned yesterday that the forecast wind profile in the lower and middle levels of the atmosphere suggests that damaging wind gusts will be the primary severe weather threat, and this continues to be the case as of this writing.
Based on current trends, I would expect one or more significant lines of thunderstorms to form along and ahead of the front in the indicated areas, with the potential for widespread, significant wind damage. While at least a few tornadoes are certainly possible, I do not expect them to become the dominant severe weather mode with this event.
Under this type of scenario, the best chance of tornadoes would come within the rotating comma head of bowing line segments, similar to the one circled in white on the image below:
These types of tornadoes are typically "weaker" and short lived, compared to their supercell counterparts. None-the-less, a tornado is a tornado, and it doesn't matter how "weak" or short lived it is if striking your home or business, so please handle the situation accordingly if you find yourself in a warned area.
Any storms that are able to form out ahead of the line or lines and remain rather isolated could become organized enough to produce a higher tornado threat. At this time, I believe the best chance of this taking place would be within the red shaded area on the map at the top of the post - perhaps extended back to the South/Southwest a bit more in Texas toward the I-35 corridor.
Some of the more subtle details will become clearer over the next 24-36 hours, and hopefully we'll have a better idea as to any enhanced tornado threat by tomorrow.
The activity is then forecast to spread Eastward into the Appalachians and the southeast U.S. on Wednesday, with the highest severe weather threat shown in red on the image below:
Once again, damaging wind gusts appear to be the greatest threat on Wednesday as well.
In addition to the threat of severe weather, this system will produce widespread, locally heavy rain across a large portion of the Mississippi River Valley, Midwest and at least the western Ohio Valley through early Wednesday:
If you live across the severe weather threat areas for Tuesday and Wednesday, please remain alert. Take the time now to review severe weather safety and preparedness tips and identify your best sheltering option so that you can move there quickly if threatening weather is observed or a warning is issued for your area.
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