Low level moisture is streaming rapidly Northward from the Gulf of Mexico today, as shown by the current surface dewpoint and wind map above.
This influx of moisture will combine with the first in a series of middle and upper level weather disturbances to produce scattered thunderstorm development from southwestern Oklahoma up through southeast Kansas and southwest Missouri later tonight. This will take place well in advance of the "main event" that is forecast for tomorrow.
The latest update from the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed a narrow axis from extreme northwest Texas into west-central Missouri under a low-end severe weather risk for tonight:
In this type of situation, hail is typically the greatest threat, although I cannot completely rule out an isolated instance of a damaging wind gust or even an isolated tornado (mainly because the low-level winds are not forecast to shift back to the Southwest-in more of a linear fashion-until after dawn on Tuesday).
I believe the most likely time for storms to develop in this region will be after Midnight, and through the pre-dawn hours Tuesday. They will move quickly toward the North/Northeast.
This is by no means a situation where you should worry about "sleeping in the basement" tonight, but do keep your weather radio or weather radio alert app handy just in case a bulletin is issued that you need to hear about...
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