I wanted to give a quick update on the storm system that I detailed in a post yesterday, and its potential impact on Texas and at least the lower Mississippi Valley region for the early to middle of next week...
First things first, a significant (and much needed) rain event will take place across the central and eastern two thirds of Texas, southeastern Oklahoma and much of Louisiana and Arkansas. Most of this rain will fall during the period Tuesday through Wednesday:
As you can see on the cumulative rainfall forecast image above, widespread rainfall amounts of 2-4 inches are expected, with localized amounts of 4-6 inches possible across much of the region. This rain will be very welcome indeed, as the vast majority of this region continues with a severe to extreme drought situation:
As I mentioned in a post yesterday, the European computer forecast model has been the most consistent thus far in forecasting this storm system, and I believe that it continues to be the most reliable with its depictions through today. The latest run of that particular model is forecasting 4 inches of rain to fall in Austin, mainly from 12 Noon Tuesday through 12 Noon Wednesday, as shown on the graph below:
While the rain will certainly be welcome across the region, on the negative side of the coin, a threat of severe weather will come along with it as well.
While some of the severe weather details still need to be worked out (mainly with respect to timing), the area shown in red on the image below is likely to have the highest threat of severe weather on Tuesday, which includes the Austin-San Antonio corridor along I-35, "The Valley" in Deep South Texas, the Texas Coastal Bend and the Houston metropolitan area:
I still believe that the situation for Tuesday looks very similar to that of the heavy rainfall and severe weather event that took place across the Austin-San Antonio corridor area during the early morning hours of January 25, 2012. That particular event produced widespread heavy rainfall (in excess of 6 inches in some locations), damaging wind gusts and at least 1 tornado.
While it is still too early to pinpoint some of the details as to the severe weather threat, if you live across the region shown in red on the map above, please pay attention to the weather on Tuesday and Tuesday night. Make sure that you a have a way to receive severe weather warnings and identify your best sheltering option in case threatening weather approaches your area.
The threat of severe weather will shift East/Northeast into Louisiana, southern Arkansas and still the Northeast part of the Texas coast (including Houston) as well as east-central Texas for Wednesday. More details on the Wednesday severe weather threat will be available tomorrow as the situation becomes more clear.
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